NBA Finals
Boston (51-31) vs. Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Tied, 1-1
Golden State can win if…the "Splash Brothers" trio--Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole--not only maintain their long distance sharpshooting but they continue to attack closeouts with aggressive drives to the hoop. The Warriors also must move actively off of the ball, and they must defend Boston's big wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without committing so much help defense that the paint becomes open for drives, post ups and offensive rebounds.
Curry is leading Golden State in 2022 playoff scoring (25.9 ppg) and playoff assists (6.2 apg). His shooting splits (.449/.380/.822) are below his career norms across the board, but not by much (other than free throw shooting). Curry averaged 23.8 ppg, 7.4 apg, and 6.8 apg with shooting splits of .444/.439/.840 in the Warriors' Western Conference Finals win against the Dallas Mavericks en route to receiving the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.
Thompson's 2022 playoff averages (19.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, shooting splits of .457/.399/.800) almost mirror his career playoff averages of 19.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg with shooting splits of .444/.412/.838. The eye test says that he is not quite at the level he reached before suffering devastating knee and Achilles injuries, but the numbers say that he is still a very effective player. To the extent that he has lost a step, this is more evident on defense, which is why Andrew Wiggins now draws the toughest defensive assignment on the wings.
During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has been the most efficient of Golden State's three main sharpshooters, with shooting splits of .531/.393/.917. He is averaging 18.4 ppg and 4.5 apg.
In 2022, Andrew Wiggins made the All-Star team for the first time in his career. He is averaging 15.8 ppg in the playoffs, but his primary value (at least in the postseason) has been on defense.
Draymond Green is the quintessential example of a player who is very important for a good team but would be much less important for a weak team. As Charles Barkley jokingly notes, Green is averaging a "triple single" (8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 6.3 apg) in the 2022 playoffs. The valuable things that Green does best are not easily measured: setting screens, making good reads (assist only partially track this), orchestrating the defense, guarding the opposing team's best big man, and being a willing and skilled help defender. If he did all of those things for a bad team, that team would still lose, but when he does all of those things for a stacked team that stacked team becomes very dangerous.
Kevon Looney's playoff numbers are not sensational (6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg), but he is the only player in the Warriors' rotation who is big for his position. Size bothers the Warriors, but they get by with Looney taking care of one big man and Green's active defense filling in the gaps while Wiggins and Thompson do most of the perimeter work.
Boston will win because…size bothers the Warriors, and the Celtics have effective size at each position: big men Al Horford and Robert Williams will punish the Warriors in the paint, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are big wing players, and Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart plays bigger than his height/weight might suggest.
The Celtics have been a legit contender for several years--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020--but because they had not reached the NBA Finals since 2010 they have flown under the radar to some extent. After their slow start this season, they were not only under the radar but they were sinking beneath the sonar as well.
Tatum is averaging 27.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 5.9 apg, and 1.2 spg with shooting splits of .446/.375/.833 in 18 playoff games. He won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 5.6 apg, and 1.1 spg with shooting splits of .462./.353/.860 in a seven game series win versus the number one seeded Miami Heat.
Brown averaged 24.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg versus the Heat, and during the playoffs overall he is averaging 22.9 ppg and 6.8 rpg. He is not as spectacular as Tatum, but he is perhaps the more consistent player.
Horford led the Celtics in rebounding versus the Heat (10.0 rpg), and he just missed averaging a double double during that series, scoring 9.8 ppg. He is averaging 11.9 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg during the playoffs.
Smart struggled with his shot versus the Heat (.360 FG%), but he contributed 16.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Overall, his playoff averages are 15.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg. Smart can defend point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards.
The Boston Celtics started slowly this season, but reemerged as an elite team after becoming the league's best defensive team while also playing more unselfishly on offense, as Tatum and Brown worked better together while Smart assumed increased playmaking duties.
Other things to consider: Media members have their narratives ready: the Golden State Warriors are a great dynasty, Stephen Curry is a top 10 all-time player, and Kevin Durant was not the best player on the Warriors' back to back 2017-18 championship teams.
The Warriors have reached the NBA Finals six times in the past eight seasons, which by historical standards is unquestionably a dynasty: only Bill Russell's Boston Celtics, the Jerry West-Elgin Baylor L.A. Lakers, the Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar L.A. Lakers, and the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls made it to the NBA Finals at least six times in an eight year span. It should be emphasized that Russell's Celtics are in a category by themselves, winning 11 titles in 13 seasons. One difference between the Warriors and most of those other dynasties is that the other dynasties had the same top two players throughout their runs, with the exception of the West-Baylor Lakers adding Wilt Chamberlain after already losing five times in the NBA Finals. The Warriors won one title with Curry and Thompson leading the way, then they won two titles with Durant as clearly the best player, and now they have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since Durant departed.
Four Warriors are averaging double figures in scoring in the playoffs, but that number increased to six versus Dallas in the Western Conference Finals as Green and Looney joined Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Wiggins. The Warriors have a tremendous ensemble cast, superior to other teams that won the NBA Finals with ensemble casts (most notably Seattle in 1979 and Detroit in 2004). Curry is better than Dennis Johnson and Chauncey Billups (the Finals MVPs in 1979 and 2004 respectively), but he is not at the same level as Russell, West, Baylor, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, Pippen, or Durant. Curry is the best player on a team that relies on strength in numbers, and on a very underrated defense that is--to put it mildly--not built around Curry.
However, I would be surprised if six Warriors averaged double figures against Boston's defense. The Celtics are not going to shut down the Warriors, but they are going to hold the Warriors to somewhere between 105-110 ppg instead of the 114.5 ppg that the Warriors have averaged so far in the 2022 playoffs.
Nothing that happens in the 2022 Finals changes or invalidates what Durant accomplished in the 2017 and 2018 NBA Finals. If Curry has an epic performance in the 2022 NBA Finals--30-plus ppg with efficient shooting numbers--that adds to his already impressive resume but it does not retroactively make him the Warriors' best player in 2017 and 2018, nor does it make him a better player than Durant.
The reality is that Curry's previous track record and Boston's current defense make it very unlikely that Curry will average 30 ppg in the Finals, let alone post efficient shooting numbers. If the Warriors win, they will win because their collective firepower overwhelms Boston's collective firepower.
The Warriors, by virtue of being completely healthy, are the best team that the Celtics have faced in the 2022 playoffs, but the Celtics are also by far the best team that the Warriors have faced in the 2022 playoffs. In their first three playoff series, the Warriors have yet to battle a team that can not only match up with them on the perimeter, but can also attack them in the paint.
I predict that the Celtics will win in six games.