Eastern Conference Finals
#1 Boston (64-18) vs. #6 Indiana (47-35)
Season series: Boston, 3-2
Indiana can win if…Tyrese Haliburton pushes the pace to the extent that Indiana scores 115-120 ppg while shooting efficiently. The Pacers led the league in regular season scoring (123.3 ppg) and regular season field goal percentage (.507), and they averaged 115.3 ppg on .532 field goal shooting in their second round victory versus the New York Knicks. They rewrote the NBA record book with their 130-109 game seven victory at New York, shooting .671 from the field overall and .763 from the field in the first half. Haliburton led the Pacers in scoring (21.3 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) versus New York.
Midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam has been more up and down than one would expect from a two-time All-NBA selection/two-time All-Star who was a key player for the 2019 NBA champion Toronto Raptors; in 13 playoff games this year his scoring has ranged from 12 points to 37 points, but he averaged 20.0 ppg and a team-high 6.4 rpg versus New York with scoring totals in between 14 and 26 points. It may not be realistic to expect him to win his matchup versus Jayson Tatum, but for the Pacers to have a chance in this series that matchup must not be a landslide in Tatum's favor.
Boston will win because…the Celtics are too talented and too big for the Pacers. Jayson Tatum has finished in the top six in MVP voting in each of the past three seasons. This season, Tatum averaged 26.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.9 apg; his scoring has dipped in the 2024 playoffs (24.3 ppg) but his rebounding (10.4 rpg) and assists (5.8 apg) have both increased. Tatum led both teams in scoring (26.8 ppg), rebounding (10.4 rpg), assists (6.2 apg, tied with Darius Garland), steals (1.6 spg) and blocked shots (1.0 bpg, tied with Evan Mobley and teammate Al Horford) as Boston defeated Cleveland 4-1 in the second round. Tatum joined Julius Erving (1976 ABA Finals) and LeBron James (2016 NBA Finals) as the only players to lead both teams in all of those categories in a playoff series since steals and blocked shots have been official statistics (1973 for the ABA, 1974 for the NBA).
Jaylen Brown is a strong second option for Boston, averaging 23.1 ppg on .554 field goal shooting during the playoffs. Third option Derrick White (18.2 ppg during the playoffs) has led the Celtics in scoring twice in 10 playoff games while also playing tough defense. Jrue Holiday has championship experience with Milwaukee and is a steadying influence at both ends of the court.
Holiday, White, and Brown can take turns guarding Haliburton, using their size and quickness to cut off driving angles and contest shots.
Kristaps Porzingis has missed Boston's last six playoff games with a strained left calf. The Celtics are cautiously optimistic that he can return to action during the Eastern Conference Finals. During the regular season, he ranked third on the team in scoring (20.1 ppg), second in rebounding (7.2 rpg), first in blocked shots (1.9 bpg), and first in field goal percentage (.516) among players who attempted at least four field goals per game. His playoff production was not nearly as good, but he poses matchup problems at both ends of the court. If Porzingis can play, this would enable the Celtics to manage the playing time of soon to be 38 year old Al Horford, who had a flashback performance in the series clincher versus Cleveland (22 points, 15 rebounds, five assists, three blocked shots) but could wear down if forced to play heavy minutes.
Other things to consider: The Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight years. That is a rare feat in the 53 years since the NBA realigned into a two conference format, but the Celtics have not won an NBA championship since 2008; the only other teams to reach the Eastern Conference Finals or Western Conference Finals at least six times in an eight year span each won at least one championship:
Philadelphia 76ers: 1977-78, 1980-83 (won championship in 1983)
L.A. Lakers: 1980, 1982-89, 1991 (won championships in 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88)
Boston Celtics: 1980-82, 1984-88 (won championships in 1981, 1984, 1986)
Chicago Bulls: 1989-93, 1996-98 (won championships in 1991-93, 1996-98)
Detroit Pistons: 2003-08 (won championship in 2004)
Golden State Warriors: 2015-19, 2022 (won championships in 2015, 2017-18, 2022)
Four of those six teams had at least one member of my pro basketball Pantheon (Julius Erving from the 76ers, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson from the Lakers, Larry Bird from the Celtics, and Michael Jordan from the Bulls). One of the least talked about and most underrated aspects of Erving's underrated career is that his teams played in pro basketball's version of the "Final Four" 10 times in the first 14 seasons of his 16 year career (and he was indisputably the best player on eight of those 10 squads while serving as a strong second option on the other two).
Consistently reaching the Conference Finals is special because the NBA is designed to create parity based on the structuring of the Draft, the free agency rules, and the salary cap rules; that preference for parity means that it is common for a team to reach the "Final Four" at least once every 15-20 years, but it uncommon for a team to repeatedly go that far in the playoffs. Daryl Morey served as Houston's General Manager for 13 years and has been Philadelphia's President of Basketball Operations for the past four seasons. His teams have never reached the NBA Finals, and have advanced as far as the Conference Finals just twice. He is touted--and touts himself--as someone whose use of "advanced basketball statistics" gives him an advantage, but the reality is that since 2008 10 of the 15 Eastern Conference teams and 11 of the 15 Western Conference teams have reached the Conference Finals at least once. The NBA's built-in parity spreads the wealth (literally and figuratively). Morey's 2015 and 2018 Houston teams, the 2019 Portland Trail Blazers, and the 2021 Atlanta Hawks are examples of teams that made fluky, unsustainable playoff runs to the Conference Finals; they each benefited more from the league's built-in parity than from anything specific that they did, and that is why none of those teams enjoyed sustained success. The Boston Celtics stand in marked contrast to those teams; it is a significant accomplishment to defy the league's built-in parity and rise above the pack to consistently advance to the "Final Four."
However, an NBA team's historical reputation hinges on winning at least one NBA title. If the Celtics win a championship then they vault themselves into the select group of teams listed above; otherwise, they remain in the same tier with the 1994-2000 Indiana Pacers, who reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times and the NBA Finals once, but never won a championship.
It is unlikely that the Celtics will ever have a more favorable path to an NBA title than facing the injury-depleted Miami Heat, the injury-depleted Cleveland Cavaliers, and the young Indiana Pacers who are not very physically imposing or defensive-oriented.
Boston will defeat Indiana in six games.