Cleveland Versus Toronto Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#2 Cleveland (51-31) vs. #3 Toronto (51-31)

Season series: Cleveland, 3-1

Toronto can win if…DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are the second and third most productive players in this series--LeBron James will almost certainly be the most productive player--and if the Raptors do not have multiple games during which they score less than 95 points.

The Raptors beat the Milwaukee Bucks 4-2 in the first round but Toronto scored 92 points or less in four of those games. If the Raptors have four games with 92 points or less versus the Cleveland Cavaliers then they will be swept; the Cavaliers are an inconsistent team defensively but they are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 110.3 ppg in the regular season (fourth in the NBA) and 112.8 ppg in their first round sweep of the Indiana Pacers.

The Raptors fell down 2-0 versus the Cavaliers in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals but rallied to extend the series to six games; I had predicted that Toronto's physicality and two All-Star guards could cause some trouble for the Cavaliers and--after some initial jitters--the Raptors validated that assessment. If the Raptors can earn a split in the first two games then they have a solid chance to ultimately win this series. The Cavaliers are talented but vulnerable.

Cleveland will win because…LeBron James is rested and dominant, while his All-Star teammates Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are also playing at a high level.

A good case can be made that the Raptors are capable of beating the Cavaliers (see above). However, I expect that James, Irving and Love will rise to the occasion after cruising through substantial portions of the regular season.

As a basketball purist, I don't like the Cavaliers' attitude that they can flip the switch whenever they want to do so--but the reality is that they will probably get away with this, at least until the NBA Finals. James averaged 32.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 9.0 apg, 3.0 spg and 2.0 bpg versus the Pacers, while Irving contributed 25.3 ppg and Love added 15.3 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Tristan Thompson provides inside muscle (team-high 11.0 rpg versus the Pacers), while Channing Frye, Deron Williams, J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver space the floor with timely three point shooting. The key question--which may not matter or be answered until the NBA Finals--is if this group is willing and able to play championship level defense on a nightly basis.

Other things to consider: At times, the Cavaliers look like a team that will not take things entirely seriously until at least the Eastern Conference Finals. The Raptors are good enough to win this series if they play at their absolute best while the Cavaliers do not play their best but it is hard to picture the Raptors winning if both teams play their best. Both teams surely understand this and that could have a psychological impact on the series: perhaps it will make the Cavaliers overconfident or perhaps the Raptors will press because they know (or believe) that they must play at a very high level to prevail.