Stephen Curry authored perhaps the best NBA Finals game of his storied career to lead the Golden State Warriors to a 107-97 win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors not only tied the series at 2-2, but they also reclaimed the homecourt advantage that they lost after dropping game one. Curry scored 43 points on 14-26 field goal shooting while also grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing for four assists. He was one of only three Warriors with a double digit plus/minus number (+11). Curry was consistent throughout the game, scoring 12 first quarter points, seven second quarter points, 14 third quarter points, and 10 fourth quarter points. Curry's scoring outburst is unexpected not because he is incapable of scoring efficiently at a prolific rate, but simply because it is unusual for him to score efficiently at a prolific rate in the NBA Finals, particularly in game four or later.
While Curry is without question this game's headliner and dominant performer, he received significant help from Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney. Wiggins scored 17 points while grabbing a career-high 16 rebounds. During this series, Wiggins has often been one of the few Warriors capable of matching up athletically and physically with the Celtics, and his +20 plus/minus number in game four indicates that the Warriors would have struggled to win this game without him. Looney only scored six points, but he had 11 rebounds in 28 minutes, and he led both teams with a +21 plus/minus number. Looney plays in the paint like a traditional big man, and the Warriors figured out that they do not have much chance of winning this series by going small with Draymond Green at center; in game four, Green was again outmatched physically, finishing with two points on 1-7 field goal shooting, though he did offset his anemic scoring to some extent with a very good floor game (nine rebounds, eight assists, four steals). Green's plus/minus number of +0 in 33 minutes reflects the reality that the Warriors did most of their damage in the 15 minutes that he did not ply.
Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole made solid contributions. Thompson scored 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting, while Poole added 14 points on 6-13 field goal shooting.
The Warriors outrebounded the Celtics 55-42, and they outshot the Celtics from the field, .440 to .400. Most significantly and unexpectedly, the Warriors outscored the Celtics in the paint 38-32 after losing that category 52-26 in game three. The Warriors set an NBA record by winning at least one road game for the 27th straight playoff series.
Jayson Tatum had solid boxscore totals (23 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, +1 plus/minus number), but he squandered too many possessions, shooting just 8-23 from the field while committing six turnovers; Tatum's missed layups and careless ballhandling proved to be very costly for the Celtics. Throughout this series, Tatum has been inefficient with his scoring opportunities at the rim, seeming at times to be more focused on trying to draw a foul than on converting the shot regardless of whether or not the referee will blow their whistles.
Jaylen Brown did his part, scoring 21 points on 9-19 field goal shooting and committing just two turnovers. Robert Williams III scored seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting, grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds, and blocked two shots in 31 minutes. He was the only Celtic other than Tatum with a positive plus/minus number (+6), but he did not get enough help inside from Al Horford (eight points, six rebounds, four assists) and Grant Williams (three points, one rebound in just 13 minutes).
Marcus Smart (18 points on 7-18 field goal shooting) and Derrick White (16 points on 4-12 field goal shooting) missed far too many shots, and they had the worst plus/minus numbers in this game (-17 and -19 respectively).
Golden State's 10 point margin of victory obscures the fact that Boston controlled the action for most of the game. Boston jumped out to an 11-4 first quarter lead, and the Celtics were up 54-49 at halftime. The Celtics led for most of the third quarter--withstanding the Warriors' typical surge during that stanza--but the Warriors entered the fourth quarter with a slim 79-78 edge after Curry drained a three pointer to close out the third quarter scoring.
The Celtics have been the better fourth quarter team throughout this series, and they were up 94-90 after Smart's three pointer with 5:18 remaining, but their offense fell apart just short of the finish line as the Warriors went on a 10-0 run. During that key stretch, the Celtics--who enjoy advantages in size and athleticism--did not attempt a single shot from closer than 13 feet, and they missed five straight three pointers. Holding the Warriors to 107 points should be good enough to win, but the Celtics did not convert enough of their defensive stops into high percentage scoring opportunities. Curry's 43 point performance will deservedly receive headlines, but the Celtics would enjoy a 3-1 series lead now despite Curry's heroics if they had scored more efficiently in the paint.
Why should we believe that the Celtics will win this series after losing game four at home? The Warriors are not going to become bigger or more athletic, so their disadvantages in this series cannot be fixed. In contrast, the Celtics are capable of cutting down on their turnovers, improving their clutch time shot selection, and finishing more efficiently in the paint. If the Celtics do those things, they will win game five, and they will win game six as well.
Throughout the playoffs, I have noted that momentum is a myth and I have stated that I am not a commentator who changes his series prediction after every game. I picked the Celtics to win this series in six games and the Celtics are still in position to make that happen; during the 2022 playoffs, the Celtics have not lost two consecutive games and they are 8-3 on the road.