Western Conference Finals
#4 Dallas (52-30) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Dallas, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Mavericks forget how to play defense and let the Warriors get comfortable behind the three point arc. The Warriors rank first in the 2022 playoffs in assists per game, third in three pointers made per game, and fourth in three point field goal percentage. Move the ball around and then shoot open three pointers is their main offensive strategy, supplemented by backcuts to the hoop if the opposing team overcommits to denying three point shots.
Stephen Curry is leading the Warriors in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) but he has posted a playoff career-low .359 three point field goal percentage. Klay Thompson's 2022 playoff numbers are right around his career norms, but he seems to have lost a step defensively after coming back from two serious leg injuries. First-time All-Star Andrew Wiggins is averaging 14.5 ppg in the playoffs after scoring 17.2 ppg during the regular season, so the Warriors' third option in the playoffs has been Jordan Poole (18.5 ppg). During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has had two 30 point games, and two games during which he scored eight points or less. He shot .600 or better from the field in five playoff games, and he shot .333 or worse in five playoff games. Feast or famine is an understatement regarding his play; he could be the first option one game, and the eighth option the next game.
Draymond Green is a fascinating player. He is praised for his basketball IQ, yet he exercises such little control over his emotions that he has a history of being ejected or suspended from games, including crucial playoff games. The Warriors rely on his defense and passing, but they are sometimes hindered by his reluctance to shoot. It is indisputable that some of the intangibles that he provides are valuable for a winning team, yet he would probably be close to worthless on a bad team: a team that has no defensive identity and that has players who are unwilling or unable to cut to the hoop at the right time would not benefit from Green's defense, screening, and passing; if he were a team's best player, that team would most likely be in the Draft Lottery--and yet, even though he is a limited player in some respects, the Warriors are clearly not as good when he is out of the lineup due to injury, foul trouble, or suspension.
As Green heads down the backstretch of his career, he has become more vocal in both traditional media and social media; he knows that his playing career will probably last 15 years at the most, but that if he plays his cards right he can collect checks as a media member for 30 years or more. The things he says are often not particularly smart, but he is smart in terms of knowing how to position himself for the next phase in his life. Other players might be criticized for dabbling in so many different things while playing for a team with championship aspirations, but most media members already treat Green as if he were one of their own.
Dallas will win because…the Mavericks are a vastly improved defensive team that can pose matchup challenges for the Warriors, because the Mavericks have more depth than the Warriors--and because Luka Doncic has arguably been the best player in the 2022 playoffs.
First year Dallas Coach Jason Kidd--who was the point guard for Dallas' 2011 championship team--has done a very impressive job transforming the Mavericks from an indifferent defensive team to a strong defensive team. An important part of that process was getting Doncic to buy into the notion that he must at least give effort on defense. Opposing teams used to "hunt" Doncic by trying to get him switched onto the primary ballhandler, but that is happening less frequently now. Kidd demonstrated a genius level basketball IQ as a player, and he has done well in his previous coaching jobs, though media members seem to be reluctant to give him credit.
There is a simple way to gauge Kidd's immediate impact: after the Mavericks won the 2011 title, they did not advance past the first round of the playoffs until this year. Rick Carlisle is widely praised as a great coach, but under his reign the Mavericks got bounced in the first round (or failed to make the playoffs at all) for over a decade.
Four Warriors are scoring in double figures in the playoffs, but six Mavericks are scoring in double figures in the playoffs. Doncic leads the way, of course, but Jalen Brunson (22.9 ppg), Spencer Dinwiddie (13.2 ppg), Dorian Finney-Smith (11.6 ppg), Reggie Bullock (10.2 ppg), and Max Kleber (10.1 ppg) are playing well enough that opposing teams cannot just focus on Doncic.
Of course, improved defense and greater depth would be of limited value without a superstar who creates matchup problems every game. Doncic ranks second in playoff scoring this season (31.5 ppg, just .2 ppg behind Giannis Antetokounmpo). Doncic also ranks sixth in playoff assists (6.6 apg), and eighth in playoff rebounding (10.1 rpg). Doncic's combination of elite level scoring and clutch shotmaking with high level rebounding and playmaking is reminiscent of a young LeBron James. Essentially, Doncic is LeBron James circa 2007, but with less jumping ability and fewer national TV ads. A great player's presence provides a sense of security for his teammates, and sows doubts in opponents. The Mavericks know that they have a chance in every game because Doncic is going to play at a high level--and their opponents know that Doncic can erupt for 30, 40, or even 50 points while also keeping his teammates involved.
The Mavericks do not have a second All-Star, but they have a roster full of very good players who can do multiple things well. That is another similarity between Luka Doncic's Mavericks and young LeBron James' Cavaliers; people who don't understand basketball often said that James lacked a good supporting cast, failing to recognize that there are players who are very good even if they are not "name brand" players, and also failing to realize that sometimes how a particular group meshes at both ends of the court matters more than the raw talent that a roster has. I understood the Cavaliers' potential early on, and I correctly picked them to go to the 2007 NBA Finals at a time when many "experts" did not think that the Cavaliers could beat the Detroit Pistons in a playoff series, but I must confess that when the 2022 playoffs began I was a bit skeptical of Doncic's supporting cast. I am not skeptical now.
Other things to consider: Some commentators act like the Golden State Warriors are the defending champions while the Dallas Mavericks are scruffy outsiders who crashed the playoff party. The back to back champion Warriors were led by Kevin Durant, and featured a fully healthy Klay Thompson. What the Warriors accomplished in 2017-18 has nothing to do with this series, because--until proven otherwise on the court--the best player in this series is Luka Doncic, who just destroyed the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in game seven in Phoenix.
One win separated Golden State and Dallas over an 82 game regular season, and the Mavericks won the head to head series, 3-1. Head to head regular season numbers can be skewed by injuries, load management, one team playing a back to back set, and so forth, but the larger point is that there is no objective reason to believe that the Warriors are in a different class right now than the Mavericks.
The Warriors are perceived to be this unstoppable offensive juggernaut, but in the 2022 playoffs the Mavericks rank first in three pointers made per game and third in three point field goal percentage. The Mavericks will not be afraid to get into a three point shooting contest with the Warriors--and the Mavericks also have a superstar who can score in the paint off of drives or postups.
In the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors have beaten the Denver Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and the Memphis Grizzlies, who did not have Ja Morant for the final three games of that six game series. The Warriors have not been seriously challenged yet, and they have not looked consistently great even against limited opposition--but now the Warriors will be facing a very good team at full strength.
In contrast, the Mavericks eliminated a good Utah team that was at full strength, and then the Mavericks knocked out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns, the reigning Western Conference champions. The current Mavericks are playoff tested. The Durant-led Warriors were playoff tested, but the 2022 Warriors are not that team.
Dallas will win in six games.