Western Conference Finals
#1 Denver (53-29) vs. #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
L.A. can win if…LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to attack the paint at both ends of the court. James and Davis pummeled the undersized Golden State Warriors, culminating in a 122-101 game six victory to end their second round series. After leading the Lakers to the 2020 NBA title in the Orlando "bubble," James and Davis led the Lakers to a first round loss in 2021, the Draft Lottery in 2022, and the seventh best regular season record in the Western Conference in 2023. The Lakers needed overtime to survive their Play-In Tournament game versus the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves last month, but James and Davis played very well in the first round against the injury-depleted Memphis Grizzlies before dispatching the Warriors.
Will James and Davis continue to attack the paint versus a Denver team that is bigger, deeper, and more cohesive than the Lakers' first two playoff opponents? If James and Davis continue to attack the paint, will the Nuggets be able to slow them down? Can Davis individually or the Lakers collectively limit Nikola Jokic's productivity and efficiency? The outcome of this playoff series will be decided by the answers to those three questions, because this series will be determined in the paint by the play of James and Davis for the Lakers versus the play of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. for the Nuggets.
James is averaging 23.4 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 5.3 apg, and 1.3 bpg in the 2023 playoffs. He is posting the third best rebounding numbers of his playoff career, and his blocked shots average is the second best of his playoff career. Those statistics are remarkable for a 38 year old player in his 20th pro campaign--but they are also necessary: if James reverts to jacking up too many three pointers and playing indifferent defense, then the Lakers have no chance.
Davis is averaging 21.2 ppg, 14.7 rpg, 3.3 bpg, and 1.4 spg in the 2023 playoffs. He ranks second on the team in scoring and field goal percentage (.530), and first in rebounding, blocked shots, and steals. Davis is posting playoff career-high numbers in rebounding and blocked shots.
Austin Reaves has emerged as the team's third best two-way player, averaging 15.4 ppg in the playoffs while also making his presence felt defensively. D'Angelo Russell is averaging 15.7 ppg in the playoffs while ranking second on the team in assists (5.0 apg) behind James. Rui Hachimura is averaging 11.2 ppg in the playoffs while leading the team in field goal percentage (.570). Lonnie Walker IV is only averaging 6.8 ppg in the playoffs, but he has played his way back into the rotation after saving the Lakers in the fourth quarter of game four versus Golden State.
How important is three point shooting to the Lakers' success? The Lakers rank 11th (out of 16 teams) in three point shooting percentage during the 2023 playoffs, and they rank 13th in three point field goal attempts. Anyone who suggests that the Lakers are winning now because they have great three point shooting is, quite frankly, a person who is not watching the games and not aware of the pertinent statistics. When the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title, they ranked 12th in playoff three point field goal percentage and 11th in playoff three point field goal attempts. They did not have "lasers" in 2020 and they don't have "lasers" now.
Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic has been the best, most consistent, and most dominant player in the 2023 playoffs. Perhaps we are seeing shades of Hakeem Olajuwon's 1995 playoff performance after he finished second to David Robinson in the regular season MVP voting. Of course, Olajuwon had already won an NBA title by that point, while Jokic is still seeking his first NBA Finals appearance, but Jokic's level of play in the 2023 playoffs is leaving little doubt about who is the NBA's best player right now.
In the Nuggets' 4-2 second round win versus the Phoenix Suns, Jokic tied an NBA record by posting three triple doubles in one series, and he averaged 34.5 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 10.3 apg while shooting .594 from the field. He scored, rebounded, and shot like prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar while putting up assist numbers like prime Magic Johnson! Jokic's overall playoff numbers this season are 30.7 ppg, 12.8 rpg, and 9.7 apg with a .549 field goal percentage. He is exceeding his excellent career playoff averages (27.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 7.0 apg, .525 field goal percentage) in four major categories.
Jokic is transcendentally great, but the Nuggets are not a one man team. Jamal Murray averaged 24.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 4.8 rpg versus the Suns, and four other Nuggets each averaged double figures in scoring while shooting at least .453 from the field (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope).
The Nuggets are not considered to be a great defensive team, but they held the Suns' high-powered offense to 107 points or less in four of the six games--including the 125-100 game six series-clincher--after the Suns averaged 113.6 ppg during the regular season.
The Nuggets have the best player in the series, they have a deep roster, they have a fine-tuned offense, and their defense is solid enough.
Other things to consider: The Nuggets were a steadily rising team until Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. suffered injuries that caused them to miss a significant amount of playing time in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Now that the Nuggets are finally healthy they appear to be resuming their normal development curve.
The Lakers beat the Nuggets 4-1 in the 2020 Western Conference Finals in the "bubble," but that year Jokic averaged 19.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, and 7.0 apg during the regular season: he was a two-time All-Star but not yet a two-time regular season MVP.
If the Lakers play the right way by attacking the paint then they can pose more challenges for the Nuggets than their first two playoff opponents did, but Jokic will be the best player in the Western Conference Finals, and Denver will defeat L.A. in six games.