Western Conference Second Round
#2 Denver (57-25) vs. #3 Minnesota (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Minnesota can win if…big men Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns dominate the paint while Anthony Edwards rules the perimeter. During the regular season, Minnesota led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.450) and points allowed (106.5 ppg), marked improvements over their rankings in those categories (11th and 18th respectively) in the previous season. This season the Timberwolves also ranked fifth in steals and sixth in blocked shots.
No one should be surprised that Minnesota outscored Phoenix 118.3 ppg to 103.3 ppg in a 4-0 first round sweep. Gobert and Towns are imposing twin towers at both ends of the court, and Edwards has developed into an elite two way player, setting career-highs in regular season scoring (25.9 ppg) and assists (5.1 apg) before averaging 31.0 ppg and 6.3 apg versus Phoenix in the first round. Edwards was clearly the most dominant player in a series that included Suns' future Hall of Famers Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (and it would not be shocking if Bradley Beal also is inducted in the Hall of Fame).
The biggest move--literally and figuratively--made by Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly was trading for Gobert, a transaction that was derided by "stat gurus" who have unbounded faith in "small ball" and jacking up high variance three pointers. Connelly understands that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. The Timberwolves ranked just 23rd in the league in three point field goal attempts, so their successful season featuring big players who do not shoot many three pointers must be very puzzling to "stat gurus."
Connelly accomplished addition by subtraction last season when he shipped out D'Angelo Russell in exchange for Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker; just getting rid of Russell represented a roster upgrade, but Connelly traded him for two significant rotation players. Conley is a heady leader, great teammate, and still a productive player (11.4 ppg, team-high 5.9 apg this season), while Alexander Walker played all 82 games this season, thriving as a reserve who also started 20 games.
In marked contrast, Russell is a perennial playoff underperformer who shot .426 from the field in the 2023 playoffs, vowed to do better in 2024--and then shot .388 from the field as the Nuggets dispatched Russell's Lakers in five games.
Prior to this season, I was skeptical of the Timberwolves not because of their size and their lack of three point shooting but because of their track record of low-IQ play in crucial situations. Conley, in his first full season with the team, helped a lot in terms of settling the team down and accelerating the maturation process for the team's young players. Edwards' emergence as an MVP-caliber player was also very important.
Coach Chris Finch did a great job providing structure, but it remains to be seen to what extent he will be on the sidelines during this series after tearing his patellar tendon in a freak sideline collision near the end of Minnesota's first round sweep.
Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic is putting up scoring/rebounding/passing/field goal percentage numbers reminiscent of prime Wilt Chamberlain:
Chamberlain, 1967 playoffs: 29.1 ppg, 21.7 rpg, 9.0 apg, .579 FG%
Jokic, 2024 playoffs: 28.2 ppg, 16.2 rpg, 9.8 apg, .591 FG%
Jokic's numbers are not small sample size theater, either: last season, he averaged 30.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 9.5 apg, and .548 FG% in 20 playoff games during Denver's 16-4 championship run, culminating in 30.2 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 7.2 apg, and .583 FG% as the Nuggets cooled off the Miami Heat 4-1 in the NBA Finals. Jokic's statistical profile is similar to prime Chamberlain, but Jokic's game is a hybrid of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, combining Bird's three point shooting, deft passing, and hard-nosed rebounding with McHale's footwork in the post.
Jamal Murray did not shoot well from the field overall (.400) during the Nuggets' 4-1 first round win versus the L.A. Lakers, but he drilled the game-winning shots in game two and in game five en route to averaging 23.6 ppg, second on the team to Jokic. Murray also ranked second in assists (7.2 apg) behind Jokic. Murray has yet to be selected as an All-Star but he has outplayed many All-Stars in his playoff career.
Side note: this is the first playoff series that I can remember during which so much noise was made about (1) which team led at halftime and (2) which team led for the most minutes. The only goal in a playoff series is to be the first team to win four games--and the Nuggets needed just five games to accomplish that versus the Lakers, after sweeping the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. Yet, it seems like many commentators are trying to give LeBron James some kind of award for lifting his team to halftime leads and for having the lead for more minutes than the Nuggets did. By that standard, auto racing records should be rewritten, with championships and trophies being awarded to the drivers who most often had the lead at the halfway point of races and who led the most total laps.
The relevant story in the Denver-L.A. series is that Jokic and his cohesive team outdueled LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and James' hand-picked roster that--just a year ago--James was praising to the sky after throwing first Frank Vogel and then Russell Westbrook under the bus. Listen closely, and you can hear that bus revving up now to run over Darvin Ham.
Back to the Nuggets, who did not chase stars but instead developed a well-balanced team around Jokic.
Michael Porter Jr. led the Nuggets in three point field goals made (20) in the first round while ranking third on the team in scoring (22.8 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.4 rpg). His frontcourt mate Aaron Gordon thrives in the "dunker" spot catching lobs from Jokic and Murray, but he also rebounds (9.8 rpg), defends, and even makes timely passes (4.6 apg).
What distinguishes the Nuggets from other teams--aside from Jokic's greatness--is that the Nuggets do not care who scores or who gets credit; they just want to win the game. Jokic is the leader, and he sets the tone for the team: smart, physical, professional.
Other things to consider: The Nuggets reached the 2020 Western Conference Finals, but then battled injuries during the next two seasons before winning the 2023 NBA title. Their key players--Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr.--are all in their primes, and no doubt take quiet delight in defeating various purported "super teams."
Connelly not only built Minnesota into a contender but he is largely responsible for putting together this Denver team: he drafted Jokic in the second round of the 2014 NBA Draft (41st selection overall), and he later drafted Murray and Porter Jr. before trading for Gordon. Note that both teams favor size over small ball and neither team relies on three point shooting, with the Nuggets ranking 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal attempts.
This will be a fun, competitive, old school series featuring two teams attacking the paint. The difference will be Jokic--not just his Wilt-like stats, but the way that he distorts opposing defenses that struggle to deal with his ability to both score efficiently and pass with precision.
Denver will defeat Minnesota in six games.