The 2023-24 NBA season is already almost 10% over for the teams that have played eight games, and it may be getting late early for some teams, to borrow a Yogi Berra line. The Washington Wizards--or "Wheeze-hards," as I call them--are 1-5 while ranking 30th (last) in points allowed, 30th in rebounding, and 20th in turnovers. The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-6 while ranking 27th in field goal percentage, 25th in turnovers, and 20th in points allowed; I expected them to struggle because of Ja Morant missing at least the first 25 games of the season due to a league suspension, but I picked them to be the seventh best team in the West, and even that modest expectation for the West's second seed last season may have been overly optimistic.
Perhaps the biggest surprise so far has been the 6-1 start by the Dallas Mavericks, who failed to even make the Play-In Tournament last season despite having both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Mavericks rank fifth in scoring, second in three point field goal percentage, and fourth in turnovers, but they rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in rebounding; their efficient, high-powered offense has made up for their lackluster defense and rebounding, but that is not a recipe for sustained, high level success--and it should also be noted that they have feasted on non-contending teams while losing 125-114 in their only game versus a contending team (the 7-1 Denver Nuggets). Doncic is once again posting MVP caliber numbers (31.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 8.9 apg), while so far Irving is accepting a secondary role (20.0 ppg, 7.8 apg).
Lest I be accused of burying the lede, I will provide my thoughts about number one overall draft pick Victor Wembanyama and his 3-4 San Antonio Spurs. Wembanyama is averaging 19.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg. 2.6 bpg, 1.7 apg, and 1.3 spg with shooting splits of .462/.324/.757. Those are All-Star caliber numbers for a veteran player, let alone a 19 year old rookie--but I have never understood or agreed with crowning a player as an all-time great after just a handful of games. So much can happen that it just makes more sense to observe and report instead of projecting and speculating. Wembanyama showed flashes of his potential in his debut game--a loss to Dallas--and then a week later he grabbed headlines by scoring 38 points on 15-26 field goal shooting while also snaring 10 rebounds in a 132-121 win versus Phoenix. His talent is obvious, significant, and undeniable, but he has shot .438 or worse from the field in four of his first seven games, and that speaks to issues with both shot selection and strength. The similarly slender Kevin Durant shot .430 from the field as a rookie and has not shot worse than .462 from the field since--but that did not happen by chance: Durant improved his shot selection and he became strong enough to establish and maintain his position on the court. It is not necessary or even desirable for naturally slender players to bulk up, as Durant, George Gervin, and Reggie Miller (among others) proved, but Wembanyama needs to get stronger not only to become a more efficient player but also to prevent injury.
The term "unicorn" is thrown around way too often. How can there be many different "unicorns" if, by definition, a "unicorn" is considered to be a unique player? Contrary to popular belief, we have seen a player very similar to Wembanyama in terms of height, build, and skill set: Ralph Sampson averaged 21.0 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.4 bpg, and 2.0 apg while shooting .523 from the field and .661 from the free throw line as a rookie in 1983-84. He played all 82 games, won the Rookie of the Year award, and earned the first of four straight All-Star selections. Injuries prevented Sampson from reaching his full potential, though he still made it to the Hall of Fame based on his stellar college career plus the flashes of brilliance he displayed in his first few NBA seasons.
Sampson did not shoot three pointers like Wembanyama does, but no one did at that time: Darrell Griffith led the NBA with 91 three point field goals made in 1983-84, and the second place finisher, Michael Cooper, made 38. Larry Bird, who won the Three Point Shootout three straight times and is one of the best shooters ever, shot 18-73 from three point range in 1983-84, because at that time the shot was not a regular part of the offense but was mainly used in late clock situations when a team trailed by three. Halfcourt heaves to beat the buzzer at the end of quarters skewed the three point percentages of many players from that era, a fact that is conveniently ignored by people who cavalierly assume that no one in the 1980s could shoot from beyond 15-18 feet.
I picked the Spurs to miss the playoffs, and I have not changed my mind; the team is not experienced enough or talented enough to play better than .500 for the rest of the season, and it is unusual for a rookie to be the best player on a playoff team, a feat that neither Shaquille O'Neal nor LeBron James accomplished.
James Harden made his much anticipated (only by him) L.A. Clippers debut on Monday night, and promptly posted a team-worst -18 plus/minus number as the Clippers--who had not scored fewer than 118 points in their first five games--lost 111-97 to the New York Knicks. Harden's individual numbers were not terrible--17 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, six assists in 31 minutes--but he is an expert at posting empty calorie numbers that have little to no connection to team success. The Clippers started the season 3-2 without Harden, and their only losses were by two points to Utah and by five points in overtime to the Lakers. Russell Westbrook has done a fine job running point since joining the Clippers late last season, but now the Clippers have created unnecessary drama because either Westbrook or Harden is going to have to accept a lesser role. The natural and correct choice would be to repurpose Harden as a potentially lethal sixth man, but the Thunder's decision to use him that way is what prompted Harden to embark upon his decade-long odyssey around the league posting empty regular season numbers before putting on concert tours in the playoffs culminating in elimination game disappearing acts. The sad reality for Clippers fans is that even if Harden becomes a productive regular season player for them he will fall apart in the playoffs.
In a related story, Harden's most recent former team, the Philadelphia 76ers, are playing like a giant, bearded malcontent has been lifted off of their collective shoulders and shipped across the country. The 76ers started the season 5-1 without the "benefit" of Harden dribbling the air out of the ball or flopping and flailing or delusionally complaining about being on a leash. Harden's empty calorie assists are so critically important to Joel Embiid's success that the 2023 regular season MVP only managed to score 48 points on 17-25 field goal shooting in a 146-128 win over the Wizards. Somehow, the 76ers struggled along with Tyrese Maxey scoring 22 points on 9-16 field goal shooting while passing for 11 assists and committing just one turnover. Sans Harden, the 76ers rank fourth in scoring, third in field goal percentage, and sixth in points allowed. The only downside for Embiid is that when the 76ers fail to advance past the second round yet again--a feat that they annually accomplish with or without Harden--he will not be able to hide behind the noise of Harden's concert tour field goal percentages. The 76ers are no worse without Harden--which speaks volumes about how little his league-leading assist numbers last season meant--but it is not clear that they will be a better playoff team without him, because that would require Embiid to be healthy and productive in April and May.