NBA Finals
Golden State (58-24) vs. Cleveland (50-32)
Season series: Golden State, 2-0
Cleveland can win if…LeBron James continues to perform at a record-setting level and if the Cavaliers continue to play much better defense than they did during the regular season.
LeBron James has been spectacular during the 2018 playoffs, averaging 34.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 8.8 apg, 1.4 spg and 1.1 bpg while shooting .542 from the field. Cleveland outlasted Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals as James averaged 33.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 8.4 apg, 1.1 spg and 1.1 bpg while shooting .524 from the field. James seemed like he was either pacing himself or in what he has called "chill mode" during substantial stretches of the regular season but he is fully engaged now and he is making it look foolish to consider anyone else to be the real MVP. If you need to win one playoff game or one playoff series and you have first pick among all active NBA players, there is no way that you take anyone other than James.
While James has been fantastic, it is worth remembering that basketball is a team sport and that James' individual heroics would have been in vain were it not for the fact that his much-maligned teammates have stepped up during the postseason, particularly at the defensive end of the court versus Toronto and Boston.
James' most talented and productive teammate is Kevin Love (13.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg during the 2018 playoffs), who missed Cleveland's game seven win over the Boston Celtics after suffering a concussion in game six of that series. Even though Love is Cleveland's second best player, in certain situations the Cavaliers perform better when he is not on the court, as Tristan Thompson and Jeff Green are more skillful defenders who can guard multiple positions after switches. In this series, Love's defense will likely be targeted by the Warriors but the Cavaliers will need Love on the court to post up, to space the floor by shooting three pointers, to provide timely passing and to rebound. Love is still in the NBA's concussion protocol, so his status for game one and the rest of the series is unknown at this time.
Former All-Star Kyle Korver has provided excellent shooting (team-best .449 3 FG%) and has even contributed defensively at times. George Hill missed three games during the first round but he is a key piece for Cleveland, a heady point guard who can shoot, defend and pass. J.R. Smith has struggled with his shot throughout the playoffs and the Cavaliers need for him to get going to have a realistic chance to beat the Warriors.
Golden State will win because…the Warriors have survived the regular season gauntlet plus a seven game series versus the Houston Rockets and those experiences have revived their sometimes wavering focus.
Winning two championships in three years and advancing to four straight NBA Finals is mentally, physically and emotionally draining. The cracks showed for the Warriors this season as they battled injuries, mental fatigue and boredom. Like the Cavaliers, they did not always seem fully engaged with the task at hand. Falling down 3-2 versus the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Finals was perhaps just the challenge/wake up call that this group needed and the Warriors responded very well: they routed the Rockets at home in game six after falling behind by double digits and then they overcame a double digit deficit on the road to capture game seven.
Kevin Durant is averaging 29.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg and 4.1 apg during the playoffs while shooting .479 from the field. He averaged 30.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg and 2.7 apg while shooting .461 from the field during the Western Conference Finals. Durant has reverted to playing too much isolation basketball at times, perhaps because Stephen Curry was out for the first six games of the playoffs or perhaps because Durant wanted to personally outduel his former teammate James Harden of Houston; Durant accomplished that mission, as Harden averaged 28.7 ppg, 6.0 apg and 5.6 rpg in the Western Conference Finals but he shot just .415 from the field and he committed 34 turnovers, seven more than any other player.
The Warriors are at their best when they are passing and cutting to get everyone involved in the offense. They are also a very stout defensive team, as demonstrated by holding Houston to under 100 points in the last five games of the Western Conference Finals.
Curry is averaging 24.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 4.9 apg during the playoffs while shooting .472 from the field and .385 from three point range. He does not always look quite like himself as he recovers from a left MCL sprain but he has nevertheless often still been the best player on the court. Harden scored a few more points than Curry during the Western Conference Finals, but Curry had more impact at both ends of the court on the outcome of the series.
Klay Thompson would be the number one option on many teams but he is the Warriors' third option, scoring 20.5 ppg in the playoffs while shooting .462 from the field and a team-high .426 from three point range. Thompson is also an outstanding defender, though the Warriors survived his early foul trouble in game seven at Houston to post a come from behind win.
Unless Draymond Green plays for a different team, there will be an eternal debate if he is really a great player or if he is just a very good player who has been fortunate to land on the perfect team for his strengths/weaknesses. Green defends, rebounds, passes and has the luxury of taking less than 10 field goal attempts per game during the playoffs because the Warriors do not need his scoring.
Andre Iguodala, who won the 2015 NBA Finals MVP largely because he at least made LeBron James work for everything that he got, has missed four straight games due to a bone bruise in his left knee. His status is still questionable. Iguodala's absence was felt at both ends of the court during the Houston series.
Other things to consider: Last season, the Warriors and Cavaliers became the first two teams to meet in three straight NBA Finals; the closest thing that we have seen to that in the past several decades happened in the 1980s: the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-Magic Johnson L.A. Lakers faced Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers three times in a four year span from 1980-83 and then the Lakers faced the Larry Bird-Kevin McHale-Robert Parish Boston Celtics three times in a four year span from 1984-87. The Lakers are viewed as the team of the 1980s mainly because they won two out of three times in both of those matchups.
James' biggest supporters say that his personal 3-5 mark in the NBA Finals should not be held against him in the greatest player of all-time conversations because James is carrying teams to the Finals that otherwise had no chance of getting there. However, it does not make sense to "credit" James for winning the Eastern Conference eight years in a row (and nine times total, including 2007 during his first stint with the Cavaliers) without also acknowledging that it is highly unlikely that he would have accomplished the same feat in this era had he been playing in the Western Conference. Magic Johnson is remembered not so much for leading the Lakers to eight Western Conference championships during the 1980s but rather because he won five titles in those eight appearances--and it is not like the Lakers faced the Sisters of the Poor in the NBA Finals: the Lakers beat strong Boston and Philadelphia teams, plus a rising Detroit team that soon won back to back titles.
James' won-loss record in the Finals is fair game when ranking the greatest players of all-time; context should be considered--which is true of any statistic or fact--but it would be odd if James becomes the first player who is measured by conference finals wins as opposed to championships, which is the rhetoric that some of his supporters seem to be spouting.
James' Cavaliers are clear underdogs in this matchup but there is a strategic road map to maximize their chances of victory. That road map obviously starts with James being far and away the best player during the series; the Cavaliers also must defend at an extremely high level for sustained periods of time, they must limit their turnovers and they must run selectively: when the Cavaliers have an advantage in transition they must push the ball to score but if they don't have an advantage then they must slow the game down and use the size of James, Love and Thompson to wear down the Warriors in the paint.
The Warriors must cut down on the careless turnovers and they must maintain an appropriate confidence level, one that involves being focused on the task at hand without skipping steps and relying on talent to carry the day.
Golden State Versus Cleveland Preview
