Western Conference Second Round
#6 Golden State (44-38) vs. #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)
Season series: L.A. Lakers, 3-1
L.A. can win if…Anthony Davis and LeBron James consistently make their presence felt in the paint at both ends of the court. Davis is capable of being an elite rebounder and shotblocker. Davis averaged 13.7 rpg and 4.3 bpg in the Lakers' 4-2 first round series victory against the Memphis Grizzlies after averaging 12.5 rpg and 2.0 bpg in the regular season--and he played in all six playoff games after missing 26 out of 82 regular season games. James averaged 11.2 rpg and 1.3 bpg in the first round after averaging 8.3 rpg and .6 bpg in the regular season--and he played in all six playoff games after missing 27 regular season games.
When Davis and James attack the paint on offense they create easy shots for themselves, they force double teams that create open shot opportunities for their teammates, and they draw fouls that get the opposing team in the bonus, creating free throw opportunities for all of the Lakers.
For the first part of this season, James focused on breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's regular season scoring record, which is a tremendous accomplishment. After James reached that milestone, he seemed more focused on using his prodigious talents to help his team win, and the Lakers won six of their final seven regular season games.
Austin Reaves has emerged as the Lakers' third best player. He averaged 16.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the first round. D'Angelo Russell spent most of the first round missing shots, but a big performance in game six lifted his series numbers to 16.7 ppg, 5.8 apg, and 3.7 rpg; this is the first time in his career that Russell played on a team that won a playoff series. Rui Hachimura (14.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, team-best .569 FG%) had a very solid first round series.
Golden State will win because…the Warriors' defense will make things difficult for the Lakers' sporadically effective offense, and Stephen Curry will continue to add to his impressive legacy. Curry is unlikely to match his iconic game seven masterpiece versus the Sacramento Kings, but it would not be surprising if he averages 30-plus ppg versus the Lakers while also contributing 5-plus apg and 5-plus rpg. He has averaged at least 30 ppg in eight of his 27 career playoff series, including four times in his last seven playoff series. Curry averaged 33.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, and 4.9 rpg versus Sacramento; that is the fourth highest scoring series of his career, and his highest scoring series since 2019.
The Warriors' defense was inconsistent during the regular season, but the Warriors shut down the high-powered Kings offense in game seven, holding Sacramento to 100 points on .375 field goal shooting. Kevon Looney grabbed 21 rebounds, and he leads all 2023 playoff rebounders with 15.1 rpg. Looney is listed at 6-9, but he plays like an old school big man and not like a new school undersized "big" who drifts to the perimeter.
Other things to consider: The mainstream media narrative is that the Lakers transformed their team by trading future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook for role players D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley. Read that sentence out loud to emphasize how foolish it sounds, and how foolish it is.
To quantify the foolishness, here are the first round numbers for the "tremendous trio": Russell averaged 16.7 ppg on .435 field goal shooting, Vanderbilt averaged 7.2 ppg on .548 field goal shooting, and Beasley averaged 4.2 ppg on .292 field goal shooting. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook averaged 23.6 ppg on .410 field goal shooting while also contributing 7.6 rpg and 7.4 apg for the shorthanded L.A. Clippers during their five game first round loss to the Phoenix Suns; those numbers, which are in line with Westbrook's career playoff averages, may never be matched in any playoff series by any of the players acquired in exchange for Westbrook.
As noted above, Davis missed 26 regular season games, and James missed 27 regular season games. Davis missed 24 of the Lakers' first 51 games and just two of the Lakers' final 31 regular season games.
The best midseason trade that the Lakers made was the one in which they traded the player known as "Street Clothes" to acquire Anthony Davis!
The Warriors went 33-8 at home and 11-30 on the road during the regular season. Their chemistry seemed tenuous at best after Draymond Green slugged teammate Jordan Poole in the face during a preseason practice. They kept talking about championship DNA and putting everything together when it mattered, but their desultory play suggested that they did not believe what they said, so it was no surprise when they fell down 2-0 versus the Kings--and it was no surprise when Green stomped on Domantas Sabonis' chest during game two, earning an ejection and a one game suspension.
What is surprising is how quickly the Warriors turned things around. They won the next three games to seemingly take command of the series before being embarrassed at home in game six, setting the stage for Curry's epic game seven performance.
Who are these Warriors? It seems unlikely that they can reach the dominant level of their repeat championship teams from 2017-2018, but it seems probable that they can eliminate a Lakers team that was even more inconsistent than they were during the 2023 regular season. The Warriors beat a quality playoff opponent, while the Lakers defeated an injury-riddled Memphis team.
I would not be shocked if the Lakers win their first two home games after falling behind 2-0, but the Warriors will win this series in six games.