Western Conference Second Round
#1 Houston (65-17) vs. #5 Utah (48-34)
Season series: Houston, 4-0
Utah can win if…the Jazz contain Houston's three point attack, force the Rockets to drive into the paint and then rely on Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Donovan Mitchell scored 171 points in his first six playoff games as a rookie, a total exceeded by only Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Mitchell averaged a team-high 28.5 ppg in Utah's six game series versus Oklahoma City and he made 10 field goals in a row down the stretch of game six to hold off the Thunder. He is a special player who has a diverse offensive skill set plus the right mentality.
Gobert is a great presence in the paint. He averaged 14.0 ppg on .612 field goal shooting versus the Thunder, while also posting 11.2 rpg and 2.0 bpg.
Point guard Ricky Rubio, who was not able to finish game six due to a hamstring injury, is the catalyst for Utah's offense, a good rebounder and a stout defender. His healthy return is critical if the Jazz are going to have any chance to pull off the upset.
Joe Ingles' regular season numbers do not stand out (11.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) but he gave the Thunder fits with his driving, his clever passing and his three point shooting.
The Jazz are not an ordinary fifth seed. They went 29-6 to close out the regular season and they actually had the same win total as the Thunder (48), so they are not a team that Houston should take lightly.
Houston will win because…the Rockets just have too much offensive firepower for the Jazz to contain. Daryl Morey's dream of constructing a team that shoots almost nothing but three pointers, dunks/layups and free throws has come true under the coaching of Mike D'Antoni. The Rockets made 75 three pointers in their five game first round victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who connected 45 times from beyond the arc and could not generate enough offense elsewhere to make up the difference.
James Harden led the way with series-high averages in scoring (29.0 ppg) and assists (7.4 apg). As always, he is a high variance player: he had 44 points on 15-26 field goal shooting in a game one win and then he only scored 12 points on 2-18 field goal shooting as his teammates carried the Rockets to a game two victory. Until I see it happen, I will remain skeptical that a player who is that inconsistent--no matter how well he can play at his best--will lead a team to a championship, but Harden is 12 wins away from proving me wrong.
Chris Paul averaged 19.0 ppg, 6.6 apg and 4.0 rpg against Minnesota. He is a deadly midrange shooter, a crafty driver, a clever passer and a bulldog defensive player. He tends to wear down as the playoffs progress, so that will be something to watch, but his defensive mindset has helped the Rockets significantly and elevated them to the top of the league thus far.
Clint Capela (15.0 ppg, 14.2 rpg, 2.0 bpg versus Minnesota) is the perfect big man for D'Antoni's system: he sets great screens, he rolls hard to the basket, he rebounds, he defends and he does not clog the middle on offense, thus leaving room for Harden and Paul to do their thing.
Eric Gordon did not shoot well during the first round (.344 FG%) but his scoring off of the bench and underrated defense are an important part of Houston's success.
Other things to consider: The Jazz have performed much better than expected after losing Gordon Hayward in free agency and they appear to be a team to watch in the future. Mitchell is performing at an All-NBA level, Gobert's defense is a major factor and Ingles has emerged as a quality secondary playmaker, finishing second on the team in scoring (14.2 ppg) and second on the team in assists (3.2 apg) in the first round. Rubio is a poor shooter (.354 FG% in the first round) but he played a significant role in Utah's victory (14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, team-high 7.0 apg) and if he can make a healthy return then Utah may have a puncher's chance at upsetting Houston.
On paper, the Rockets should win the championship. They posted the league's best regular season record by a country mile, they are healthy, they have a backcourt consisting of the presumptive regular season MVP and a future first ballot Hall of Famer and they have a deep cast of good players who understand/accept their roles. The elephant in the room is that Harden, Paul and D'Antoni all have a history of underperforming in the playoffs.
I am picking Houston because that is the most logical choice but I will never be surprised if a Harden/Paul/D'Antoni team loses in the second round of the playoffs.
Houston Versus Utah Preview
