Nikola Jokic authored one of the most dominant all-around performances in NBA Finals history--32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists--as the Denver Nuggets led for the entire second half en route to winning 109-94 to take a 2-1 series lead. Jokic posted the first 30-20-10 stat line in NBA Finals history. Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are the only other players to post a 30-20-10 stat line in a playoff game, accomplishing the feat one time each. Jamal Murray had an outstanding game as well, scoring a game-high 34 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and tying Jokic for game-high honors with 10 assists. Jokic and Murray became the first teammates in NBA history--including regular season, playoff, and Finals games--to each have a 30-10-10 stat line in the same game. Jokic played 44 minutes and Murray played 45 minutes; their ability to be highly productive and efficient with little rest distinguishes them from so many players who "load manage" their way through games and entire seasons. Christian Braun scored 15 points on 7-8 field goal shooting in 19 minutes off of the bench, and Aaron Gordon contributed 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.
Anyone who stubbornly clings to the demonstrably false belief that "pace and space" and "range shooting" are the most important factors for building a championship team should note that in this game the Nuggets outscored the Heat 60-34 in the paint, outrebounded the Heat 58-33, and won by 15 points despite shooting just 5-18 (.278) from three point range. Jokic is a basketball artist with his footwork, fine-tuned passing, and shooting, but he is also physically overpowering--and he led the way as the Nuggets physically overpowered the Heat. Size matters in the NBA--a point that I have repeatedly made for the past two decades, and a point that continues to be true. In game two, the Nuggets missed many defensive assignments, and they did not fully exploit their size advantage, but in game three the Nuggets held the Heat to 34-92 field goal shooting (.370), including 11-35 (.314) from three point range.
Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 28 points on 11-24 field goal shooting. He had four assists and two rebounds. Butler played well, but he was the third best player on the court behind Jokic and Murray. Bam Adebayo had 22 points and a team-high 17 rebounds, but he shot just 7-21 from the field.
Jokic set a dominant tone early, scoring 10 points and grabbing seven rebounds in the first quarter. The score was tied 24-24 after the first 12 minutes, and the Nuggets only led 53-48 at halftime despite enjoying significant advantages in field goal percentage (.477 to .391) and rebounding (28-21). The Heat stayed close with nearly perfect ballhandling, committing just one first half turnover while the Nuggets had five first half turnovers (not a terrible number, but those extra possessions helped the Heat to stay within striking distance).
The Nuggets broke the game open in the third quarter as Jokic refuted the ridiculous notion that the Nuggets are not at their best when he is a prolific scorer. Jokic scored 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting to help the Nuggets outscore the Heat 29-20, including 18-4 in the paint. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat 17-3 as Jokic alone doubled the Heat's rebounding total; the Nuggets looked like the big brother dominating the little brother in a backyard game.
The Nuggets had some fourth quarter lapses, but the Heat never cut the margin to less than nine points.
After game two, many media members promoted the false narrative that the Nuggets lost because Jokic scored more than 40 points while "only" having four assists. The reality is that the Nuggets have a historically great offense that has been remarkably consistent and effective during the regular season, the playoffs, and the first three games of the NBA Finals: the Nuggets scored 104 points on .506 field goal shooting in their game one win, they scored 108 points on .520 field goal shooting in their game two loss, and they scored 109 points on .512 field goal shooting in their game three win. The difference between their two Finals wins and their one Finals loss is defense. The Nuggets held the Heat to 93 points on .406 field goal shooting in game one and they held the Heat to 94 points on .370 field goal shooting in game three, but the Heat got loose for 111 points on .487 field goal shooting in game two.
If the Nuggets' game two defensive rotations had been just a little sharper, they would enjoy a 3-0 lead now and would be poised to complete a sweep on Friday night. In game three, the Nuggets proved that their game two mistakes were correctable--but, as we will all see as this series progresses, the Heat cannot fix what went wrong for them in game three, because that would require their players to become taller and stronger. The Heat are a scrappy and smart team that may find a way to win game four, but it will be very difficult for them to win three of the next four games.
Many commentators declared that Miami had the advantage in this series after winning game two, but in my game two recap I predicted a double digit Denver win in game three: "Am I surprised that Miami won game two? No--I foreshadowed this possibility in my series preview when I wrote, 'The Heat will fight until the end. They will win a couple games, possibly including one in Denver.' I expect that Denver will win at least one of the next two games in Miami before closing out the series in six games. I would not be surprised if Denver won game three by at least 10 points, nor would I be surprised if the series returns to Denver tied 2-2."
The reason that I give the Heat a puncher's chance to win game four is because there is a natural human tendency to have a bit of a letdown after retaking homecourt advantage with a dominant road win. The Heat will always play hard and smart regardless of how well they are shooting, so if the Nuggets relax a bit defensively then the Heat could win game four by a small margin--but if that happens then the Nuggets will win game five at home in commanding fashion, and close out the series in Miami in game six. If the Nuggets attack the paint on offense and play sound defense in game four then they will win to take a 3-1 lead before closing out the series in five games.