Before analyzing how well the Denver Nuggets played in their 104-93 victory over the Miami Heat in game one of the 2023 NBA Finals, it is important to emphasize that this is not Denver's first Finals appearance; the New York Nets defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the 1976 ABA Finals as New York's Julius Erving authored one of the greatest performances in playoff history, leading both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). At that time, only three other players had averaged more points in a Finals series (Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, and Jerry West), and 47 years later Erving's average still ranks sixth in Finals history.
The Nuggets have a rich history dating back to the ABA that should be honored and recognized by the NBA and the NBA's media partners--as should all of the ABA's statistics and records. Three players from Denver's 1976 Finals team have been inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame--David Thompson, Dan Issel, and Bobby Jones--and Nikola Jokic is well on his way toward earning that honor.
In game one versus the Heat, Jokic led both teams in scoring (27 points on 8-12 field goal shooting and 10-12 free throw shooting) and assists (14) while also grabbing 10 rebounds. Jokic broke Bill Russell's NBA Finals single game record for assists by a center as he posted his ninth triple double of the 2023 playoffs, extending his own record for most triple doubles in one postseason. Jokic presents a challenge that the Heat seem unlikely to be able to solve: when they guarded Jokic one on one, he killed them with his scoring in the post, but when they sent a second defender to harass Jokic then he dissected them with his passing. Jokic's ability to score, rebound, and pass at a high level wrecked any defense that Miami tried. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy repeatedly mentioned Jokic's great conditioning, and how that great conditioning enables Jokic to be dominant for all four quarters; that is a major factor that distinguishes two-time regular season MVP Jokic from 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid.
Jamal Murray continued his outstanding 2023 playoff run, finishing with 26 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds. Aaron Gordon added 16 points and six rebounds while playing great defense against Jimmy Butler. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 14 points and a game-high 13 rebounds as Denver's size overwhelmed Miami, resulting in a remarkable statistic: the Heat set an NBA playoff single game record by attempting just two free throws; it seemed as if Denver had a moat surrounding the paint on defense and an express lane leading to the paint on offense.
Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 26 points and 13 rebounds while dishing for five assists. Gabe Vincent scored 19 points and had five assists. Haywood Highsmith poured in 18 points on 7-10 field goal shooting in 23 minutes off of the bench, and backup point guard Kyle Lowry provided a lift with 11 points, five assists, and five rebounds.
However, Miami's two Eastern Conference Finals heroes--Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin--had forgettable games. Butler had 13 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists while compiling a game-worst -17 plus/minus number, and Martin scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting.
Is Butler wearing down? He began the 2023 playoffs with 35 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, and three steals as the Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks in game one, becoming just the fourth player to accomplish that stat line more than once in a playoff game since the NBA began tracking steals in 1974, joining Russell Westbrook (three times), Michael Jordan (twice), and LeBron James (twice). Butler scored at least 25 points while shooting at least .500 from the field in each of his first six games this postseason--tied with Bernard King (1984) and Michael Jordan (1992) for the fourth longest such steak ever behind only LeBron James (2017) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10 in 1970, nine in 1977)--but Butler has shot at least .500 from the field just once in his past 10 playoff games (including game one of the NBA Finals). After scoring at least 30 points in four of his first five playoff games in 2023, Butler has topped the 30 point barrier just once in his last 13 playoff games.
The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was very much the case in this game. The Nuggets outscored the Heat 29-20 in the first 12 minutes--including 20-6 in the paint--as Jokic scored just four points but shredded the Heat's defense with six assists. Gordon sliced the Heat to ribbons with his cuts to the hoop, scoring 12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The second quarter produced a similar score--30-22 in Denver's favor--but by different means, as the Heat did a better job protecting the hoop only to see the Nuggets shoot 4-5 from three point range. Unlike the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Nuggets do not "dribble, dribble, dribble" into contested jumpers; the Nuggets attack the paint, and create outside shots from their paint attacks.
Near the end of the third quarter, the Nuggets pushed their lead to 84-60, but the Heat never quit, and they cut the margin to 96-87 with 2:34 remaining in the fourth quarter. Jokic was content to spend most of the game as a distributor, but in the fourth quarter as the Heat made their run he scored 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting to seal the deal.
Two reasons that the Heat ended up with the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference are anemic offense, and being an undersized team that has difficulty dealing with bigger players/bigger teams. Those are the reasons that I expected the Heat to lose to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics but--to the Heat's credit--they played much better in the Eastern Conference playoffs than they did during the regular season. The Heat are unlikely to grow prior to game two, and the Nuggets are unlikely to shrink. The Heat can attack the hoop more aggressively, and they can more frequently target Jokic's defense by involving him in the two man game at the top of the key; look for the Heat to do both of those things in game two, but also look for the Nuggets to play even better than they did in game one en route to taking a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Miami for games three and four.