Tom Haberstroh's June 20, 2024 article about NBA stat padding focuses on discrediting Michael Jordan's statistics for steals and blocked shots that helped Jordan win the 1988 Defensive Player of the Year award, but Haberstroh ignores two larger issues:
1) NBA stat padding is not limited to just Jordan or just steals and blocked shots, nor is NBA stat padding a relic from the 1980s, as Haberstroh suggests.
2) To the extent that raw boxscore numbers are inaccurate, the "advanced basketball statistics" derived from those boxscore numbers are inaccurate and thus irrelevant.
Haberstroh's laser focus on Michael Jordan's 1987-88 statistics is understandable because the NBA and its media partners are in the entertainment business, and it is not good for ticket sales, merchandise sales, or broadcast ratings to assert that the greatest player of all-time played in the 1980s or 1990s (and forget about the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s); the NBA and media members like Haberstroh benefit from promoting the narrative that the greatest player of all-time is playing right now. LeBron James has openly lamented that the one trophy missing from his extensive trophy case is the Defensive Player of the Year award, so it is not surprising that--since it is unlikely that James will ever win that award now at his advanced age--Haberstroh seeks to elevate James by diminishing Jordan. Brian Windhorst and Dave McMenamin have made a lot of money crafting narratives for James, so Haberstroh is just running a play from their already successful playbook. When McMenamin cites an anonymous source within the Lakers organization, do you think that his source is LeRoy the ball boy or LeBron the self-proclaimed "King"? McMenamin did not obtain his current position by advancing narratives favored by LeRoy the ball boy, because LeRoy the ball boy has no power.
Writing an article discrediting Jordan for winning the one award missing from James' trophy case is a proven way to obtain access to "anonymous" sources, and to lay the groundwork for book deals, podcasts, and more.
How do I know what motivated Haberstroh to write his article? I can't read Haberstroh's mind, but I can read his words, and he framed his article not around a narrative focused on improving NBA stat keeping--indeed, he even asserted that there is no problem now (i.e., we should have full faith in all of LeBron James' numbers, including his likely inflated assists)--but rather declaring in his opening sentence, "It may be the most consequential Defensive Player of the Year award in NBA history." Haberstroh understood the assignment: Jordan has something that James does not have but very much wants, so that 1988 Defensive Player of the Year award must be discredited by any means necessary. Haberstroh makes it clear that his mission is not to set the record straight overall about NBA stat keeping, but just to discredit one player's statistics to undermine one specific award from 36 years ago. The subtitle of his article--"Has LeBron James Been Chasing a Ghost?"--further emphasizes Haberstroh's agenda; writers generally do not write the headlines for their articles, but in this instance the headline accurately reflects Haberstroh's theme and purpose.
Haberstroh is not doing investigative reporting about NBA stat keeping in general, even though he mentions the topic in his article, nor is he examining why individual scoring numbers have soared in recent seasons. That is why we are still waiting for Haberstroh, Windhorst, McMenamin or any of the other well-known NBA reporters/commentators to do an in depth video analysis showing that the scoring totals of many current NBA players are inflated by their deployment of a host of illegal moves, including palming, traveling, and flopping/flailing. It is instructive to contrast the step back move used by Larry Bird, Dell Curry and Adrian Dantley with what is called a step back move in today's game, but such an analysis does not mesh with the NBA's preferred narrative.
Even though Haberstroh clearly states his agenda, that does not mean that his basic premise about Jordan's steals and blocked shots being inflated by home team statisticians is wrong--but instead of focusing just on Jordan to elevate James, let's look at the larger issues. There is good reason to believe that NBA stat padding extends well beyond just Jordan's steals and blocked shots in the 1987-88 season, and the problem is not just that statisticians favor the home team's players.
An assist is supposed to be a pass that leads directly to a basket, but I charted assists in a number of games for several years and found that Chris Paul's gaudy assist totals are inflated (for more details, see A Brief History of NBA Stat Padding after the end of this article). Inflating Paul's assist totals affects not just Paul but it alters the NBA's official record book rankings of players, and it also renders meaningless the highly touted "advanced basketball statistics" that are treasured by "stat gurus." If assists are being handed out more often than they should be, then the vaunted "advanced basketball statistics" for assists per 36 minutes, assists per 100 possessions, and any player ranking formulas relying on assist numbers are skewed. Further, if Haberstroh is correct that steals and blocked shots numbers are easy to manipulate as well, then those inaccurate boxscore numbers further skew the "advanced basketball statistics."
On March 31, 2009, I addressed this issue in If Some of the Numbers are Bogus Then How "Advanced" are "Advanced Stats"? My consistent position for over 20 years is that there is some value in raw boxscore numbers, and there is some value in the intelligent use of certain "advanced basketball statistics," but the best way to evaluate players and teams is detailed skill set analysis based on a combination of in person observation, film review, and consideration of the opinions of qualified observers (i.e., reviewing what coaches, scouts, other players, and competent analysts say). As Haberstroh noted in his article, even if Jordan's 1987-88 statistics were inflated, qualified observers at that time such as Pat Riley and Bob Ryan considered Jordan to be an elite defensive player. Similarly, even though it is obvious that Chris Paul's assist totals are inflated, I would still argue that Paul is an elite playmaker based on analyzing his skill set: he makes great reads, he has the ability to deliver a variety of kinds of passes even under pressure, and he understands the right pass to make depending on how the defense is deployed and who is the intended recipient of the pass.
Detailed skill set analysis is not easy, nor does it mesh with our current culture dominated by screaming hot takes delivered in 30 seconds or less, but if you love basketball and respect basketball history then detailed skill set analysis is the best way to evaluate players and teams.
A Brief History of NBA Stat Padding
Charting Chris Paul's Assists Versus the Golden State Warriors (November 1, 2013)
Charting Assists for Chris Paul and Jason Kidd (April 12, 2009)
Rick Barry Interview (February 13, 2009)
Paul and West Lead Hornets to 116-105 Win Over Lakers (January 7, 2009)
Charting Assists for Chris Paul and Tony Parker in New Orleans' 90-83 Victory Over San Antonio (December 18, 2008)
Smooth All-Around Performance by Paul Lifts Hornets Over Heat (November 9, 2008)
Manu is the Man as Spurs Eliminate Hornets (May 20, 2008)
David West Dominates as Hornets Throttle Spurs, 101-82 (May 4, 2008)