Nikola Jokic led the Denver Nuggets in scoring (34 points on 12-17 field goal shooting), rebounding (game-high 21 rebounds), and assists (game-high 14 assists) as Denver raced to a 30-14 first quarter lead en route to a 132-126 win over the L.A. Lakers in game one of the Western Conference Finals. Jokic now has two career postseason 30 point-20 rebound-10 assist triple doubles; there have been two other such postseason performances in NBA history--one by Wilt Chamberlain, and the other by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Jokic also has the most career postseason 30 point-15 rebound-10 assist games in NBA history (four), breaking a tie with Oscar Robertson and LeBron James.
Jokic performed at a historically great level, but he was not a one man show. Jamal Murray scored 31 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, as each of Denver's starters scored at least 12 points. The Nuggets dominated the Lakers 47-30 on the boards.
The Lakers rallied behind their top three players--Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves--to outscore the Nuggets 72-60 in the second half, but that was not enough to avoid defeat. That trio combined to score 55 second half points. Overall, Davis scored 40 points on 14-23 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds and blocking two shots. James added 26 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. Reaves had 23 points and eight assists. Rui Hachimura provided 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench; he did not have a single rebound, but using him as the primary defender versus Jokic so that Davis could be a defensive roamer played a role in the Lakers' second half run. Hachimura had a +10 plus/minus number, while every Laker starter had a negative plus/minus number.
The Lakers' late game rally will no doubt inspire much commentary about how the Lakers "found something" and will "make some adjustments" to set up a game two win. "If the Nuggets barely won despite Jokic having a historic triple double, then the Lakers are in great position, particularly considering how well the Lakers contained Jokic in the fourth quarter" is an example of how that narrative will be expressed. When analyzing playoff basketball--or any kind of basketball--it is important to distinguish between anomalous performances and performances that are the result of exploiting matchup/skill set advantages. For example, Jokic has demonstrated for quite some time that he can put up "big" triple doubles (as opposed to 10-10-10 stat lines that may be valuable but are not necessarily dominant); believing that Rui Hachimura is going to shut down Jokic for the rest of the series is not just very optimistic: it is delusional. On the other hand, there is no body of evidence supporting the hope/notion that Anthony Davis is going to consistently be aggressive against elite level competition without suffering an injury or becoming lackadaisical. In short, one can be fairly confident about predicting the broad contours of Jokic's game two performance, but one has little idea what to expect from Davis. If Davis is great again, then the Lakers will have a chance to win, but Davis being great two games in a row would be surprising, to say the least.
The good news for the Lakers is that they traded future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook for the "tremendous trio" of D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. Surely those players had a great game one and will be major contributors throughout this series, right? Let's check out the boxscore:
Russell: eight points on 4-11 field goal shooting, game-worst -25 plus/minus number. He was the only Laker starter who did not play a minute in the fourth quarter.
Vanderbilt: zero points on zero field goal attempts in 10 minutes.
Beasley: DNP-CD (Did Not Play--Coach's Decision).
If someone argues that trading Westbrook freed up minutes for Austin Reaves, that may be true--but that truth says more about either Coach Darvin Ham's rotations or LeBron James' influence on those rotations than it does about Westbrook's skills or impact. If someone argues that Rui Hachimura was a valuable midseason acquisition, that is true--but Hachimura was acquired before Westbrook was traded, so the Lakers could have benefited from Hachimura's skills while also keeping Westbrook (who plays a different position than Hachimura, and who performed well alongside Hachimura when both played for the Washington Wizards).
If someone argues that trading Westbrook for Russell, Vanderbilt, and Beasley improved the Lakers then that person is either not watching the games with understanding, or that person is so committed to an anti-Westbrook narrative that reality cannot possibly make a dent on the fantasy world that he has constructed.
I picked the Nuggets to win this series, and nothing that happened in game one caused me to regret that prediction. Based on what I have seen of the Lakers, I would add that if the Lakers win this series it is much more likely that they will do so after cutting Russell's minutes and role than that they will do so with Russell having a positive impact. It is obvious what Coach Ham thinks of the three players who the Lakers acquired for Westbrook: Beasley rarely leaves the bench, Vanderbilt now gets cameo appearances, and Russell is--at best--the third guard behind Reaves and Dennis Schroeder, and it would not be shocking for Russell to fall behind Lonnie Walker IV in the rotation as well.