San Antonio Versus Houston Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#2 San Antonio (61-21) vs. #3 Houston (55-27)

Season series: San Antonio, 3-1

Houston can win if…James Harden performs at an MVP level, the Rockets shoot a high percentage from three point range and the Rockets hold the Spurs to under 105 ppg (because the Rockets are unlikely to average more than 105 ppg versus the Spurs).

James Harden will almost certainly average at least 25 ppg and 7 apg in this series. Those numbers are simply a product of his role in Coach D'Antoni's system; Harden will have the ball a lot, he will shoot the ball a lot and when he is on the court he will make most of the passes that lead directly to field goal attempts by his teammates. The problem for Houston is that Harden will also almost certainly shoot less than .450 from the field and very probably less than .420 or even .400 from the field--and he will likely commit turnovers at a very high rate (between 5-7 per game). In addition, Harden will play little to no defense. None of these things mattered very much in the first round, when the Rockets defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder despite Russell Westbrook's incredible numbers (37.4 ppg, 11.6 rpg and 10.8 apg)--but all of those things will matter very much now that the Rockets are facing a complete team.

Westbrook averaged a series-high 39 mpg versus Houston and the Thunder easily outplayed the Rockets during those minutes; Houston advanced based largely on outplaying Oklahoma City during the 9 mpg that Westbrook sat. Bench players Lou Williams (18.8 ppg), Eric Gordon (13.6 ppg) and Nene 13.6 on .848--that is not a typo--FG%) destroyed the Thunder; those players are all proven NBA veterans but they are not going to dominate against the Spurs the way that they did against the Thunder.

San Antonio will win because…the Spurs will not commit silly fouls, they will hold the Rockets to between 100-105 ppg and they are well-equipped not only to execute in the half court but also to selectively play at a fast tempo.

The Spurs have a sustained championship-contending pedigree over the past two decades that is rivaled in professional sports only by the New England Patriots. The first two San Antonio championship teams (1999, 2003) were focused on a Twin Towers attack (Tim Duncan/David Robinson) that played at a slow tempo and were stifling defensively. After Robinson retired and Duncan aged, the Spurs' approach evolved. Defense has remained a calling card but the offensive attack is more wide open and incorporates the three point shot, particularly from the corner (because the corner three is a valuable shot, as it is closer to the hoop than any other spot behind the three point arc).

Kawhi Leonard began his career looking like an improved version of Bruce Bowen but now he is the best two-way player in the league; that does not mean that he is the MVP, an honor that should go to Westbrook in recognition of his record-setting production while leading an undermanned team to the sixth seed in the Western Conference, but he is an MVP caliber player. Leonard has no skill set weaknesses as a player but he is not as explosive or dominant as Westbrook in terms of scoring, rebounding and passing; Leonard is a more efficient scorer and a more effective defensive player but some of his superiority over Westbrook in those areas is a result of playing with a better overall team.

The Rockets rely heavily on drawing fouls, shooting open three pointers and scoring 110-plus ppg; they are unlikely to be consistently successful in any of those endeavors versus the Spurs: the Spurs will emphasize not fouling Harden and Williams (who both benefited from many stupid fouls committed by the Thunder in the first round), they will run the Rockets off of the three point line and they will shave at least 10 ppg off of the Rockets' 115.3 ppg regular season scoring average.

Other things to consider: The Spurs defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in the first round. The Grizzlies are often described as a team no one wants to face (or words to that effect), but the Spurs have defeated the Grizzlies in four out of their last five playoff series. The Spurs' margins of victory in this year's series were 29, 14, 13 and seven, while Memphis had an 11 point win and a two point win at the buzzer in overtime. That works out to an 8.3 ppg differential, which is rather sizeable.

Houston's ppg differential versus the Oklahoma Thunder was comparable (8.6) but after the Rockets' 31 point game one blowout the next four games were decided by four, two, four and six points. The Rockets enjoyed an advantage in every matchup other than Westbrook-Harden and still struggled to advance.

This series should be a San Antonio sweep but the Rockets are a high variance team (they might have a home game during which they sink 15 or 20 three pointers) and the Spurs have had more clunkers this season than usual, so I expect the Spurs to win in five games.