The game one winner of an NBA playoff series eventually wins the series nearly 80% of the time and teams that take a 2-0 lead win the series well over 90% of the time—so, for all of the cliched talk about a playoff series not beginning until the road team wins (or the venue shifts, as takes place in games three and four), the reality is that the die has likely been cast already in many of these series.
Let’s take a brief look at what has happened so far:
Eastern Conference
Milwaukee 2, Detroit 0
This series is over. The Pistons are outmatched and the only question is whether or not they can win a home game to avoid being swept.
Toronto 1, Orlando 1
Although the Magic took homecourt advantage by winning game one, this matchup still looks like one in which the Raptors’ superior talent will prevail even if that takes six or seven games. It is interesting, though, to wonder about what possible impact Kawhi Leonard’s “load management” has had on team chemistry/cohesion. The Raptors may still not be completely used to playing with him.
Boston 2, Indiana 0
The Celtics are going to win this series in no small part because they have Kyrie Irving and the Pacers do not. What I am wondering is whether or not the Pacers can successfully execute a late game inbounds play offensively or defensively. The end of game two was ridiculous. The Pacers played hard all game but lost because of inexcusable fundamental breakdowns of execution.
Philadelphia 1, Brooklyn 1
The 76ers will probably win this series based on talent but it must be said that the Nets do not look intimidated, nor are they quite as outmatched as I expected. Regardless of what happens, it is clear that the 76ers in no way resemble a championship team.
Western Conference
Golden State 1, L.A. Clippers 1
It would be shocking if the Clippers win this series but they are a shining example of the value of playing hard, not quitting, and building a winning culture as opposed to tanking to accumulate Lottery picks. The injury to DeMarcus Cousins is a devastating end to his comeback season. The Warriors have proven that they have enough talent to win a title without him but their margin for error has diminished significantly.
Denver 1, San Antonio 1
If the Spurs had held on to their game two lead, this series would be a wrap. Now, it’s a tossup, with Denver having the cushion of game seven at home if the Nuggets can take one in San Antonio. Gregg Popovich has done a tremendous job of preparing his roster throughout the season to be ready for the playoffs.
Portland 2, Oklahoma City 0
It seems like the Thunder do not have enough talent to win unless Russell Westbrook has a 25 or 30 point triple double. The Thunder need to run an offense that consistently generates shots they are able to make. There is not much value to drive and kick without having legit, deadeye shooters receiving those passes. It would also be helpful if the Thunder find an answer for their former backup center, Enes Kanter, who has been the X factor thus far.
Houston 2, Utah 0
The Rockets have dominated and deserve a lot of credit but the Jazz have been soft mentally and physically. The Jazz had been a strong defensive team but in this series they are using an anti-James Harden plan that makes no sense: you do not give an All-Star a “runway” to drive to the hoop. It is challenging to guard Harden the way that he is officiated but escorting him to the hoop is not the answer. Play him straight up, concede the 28 foot stepbacks and contest everything else without fouling. If the Jazz do that, this could still be a competitive series. Otherwise, it’s lights out.
Series Snapshots After Two Games
