The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament features the seventh seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Miami Heat and L.A. Lakers respectively) facing the eighth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively). Each of the winners of those two games qualifies for the playoffs as the seventh seeded team in that conference, and will face the second seeded team in that conference in a seven game first round playoff series. Each of the losers of those two games will get a second chance to qualify for the playoffs by facing the winner of the battle between the ninth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans respectively) versus the 10th seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively), while the losers of the games featuring the ninth and 10th seeded teams are eliminated.
The NBA began using the Play-In Tournament in this format in 2021. The seventh seeded team has yet to lose a game in either conference, and the ninth seeded team has yet to lose to the 10th seeded team. The ninth seeded team has defeated the eighth seeded team three times in four games. No team that qualified for the NBA playoffs via the Play-In Tournament has extended a playoff series to seven games, much less actually win a playoff series.
In short, the Play-In Tournament is a showcase for teams that spent 82 regular season games proving their mediocrity, and no Play-In Tournament team has proven to be anything other than mediocre.
In the Eastern Conference, I predict that Miami will defeat Atlanta, and Toronto will defeat Chicago. Then, Toronto will defeat Atlanta to earn the eighth seed. The Miami Heat not only enjoy homecourt advantage, but the Heat have the same core players who reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat have struggled with injuries and uncharacteristic inconsistency this season, but they have a better and deeper team than the Hawks. If there is a Play-In Tournament team that could actually win a playoff series--a doubtful proposition, as noted above--the Heat are that team. The Raptors have endured a disappointing season, but they should be able to win two games to salvage this campaign by at least earning a spot in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks' run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke: they went 41-41 that season, and followed that up with records of 43-39 and 41-41 the past two seasons while cycling through four coaches since 2020.
In the Western Conference, I predict that the L.A. Lakers will defeat Minnesota, and New Orleans will defeat Oklahoma City. Then, New Orleans will defeat Minnesota to earn the eighth seed. The media narrative that it is an accomplishment for the Lakers to earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament is baffling; the Lakers feature two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: failing to qualify for the playoffs outright is embarrassing, and losing in the Play-In Tournament should be considered unacceptable. The Utah Jazz' "B" team eviscerated the Lakers in the paint by a 76-50 margin in the last game of the regular season with playoff positioning on the line for the Lakers, putting a dent in the notion that the Lakers have become some kind of defensive juggernaut since the trade deadline--but the Lakers won the game, mainly because of some improbable three point marksmanship (8-14) from LeBron James, who posted one of the lowest three point shooting percentages of his career this season, and who made at least five three pointers in a game just five other times all season long. The Lakers have performed better recently because Anthony Davis has been healthy and thus has been active at both ends of the court, but the Lakers are what their overall record suggest that they are: at best, a lower tier playoff team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have never been known for their collective basketball IQ--to put it charitably--but their multiple meltdowns during the last game of the season are as baffling as they are damaging: Rudy Gobert was sent home at halftime after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall. Somehow, the Timberwolves still beat the Pelicans, though perhaps that is not shocking considering that the Timberwolves often played better this season without Gobert. McDaniels is likely out for whatever remains of the Timberwolves' season, while Gobert's status has yet to be publicly determined.
If James cannot lead the Lakers to a home win against the dysfunctional Timberwolves, even his staunchest allies in the press corps will have a difficult time buying whatever excuses he offers.
The Pelicans are talented and scrappy even without the perpetually injured Zion Williamson, and I like their chances to beat the Timberwolves in a rematch of the regular season finale.
The NBA does not include Play-In Tournament statistics with either their regular season statistics or their playoff statistics, which reinforces the reality that these games are less about competition than about an opportunity to make more money--and we know that the NBA cares about profits more than anything else. For the record, in 2021 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Boston, Washington, L.A. Lakers), and in 2022 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Minnesota); to review my previous Play-Tournament predictions and commentary, check out the links below.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2022
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
2021
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)