Ja Morant is rising--literally and figuratively. His incredible dunks and spectacular blocked shots have made him a staple feature of NBA highlights via mainstream media and social media. More significantly, his all-around play has elevated the Memphis Grizzlies from being the ninth place team in the West that reached the 2021 playoffs via the Play-In Tournament to the third place team in the West that is fighting with Golden State for second place. I thought that the ceiling for the 2021-22 Grizzlies would be sneaking into the playoffs again via the Play-In Tournament, but the Grizzlies are much better than I expected.
Before examining how Morant has become an All-NBA First Team caliber player, it is important to note that he is not the only reason for Memphis' success. The Grizzlies are 43-20 overall, but that includes a 12-2 record during games that Morant missed; Morant is a great player, but Memphis is demonstrably not just a one man show. The Grizzlies are a physical team that ranks first in the NBA in rebounding, blocked shots, and free throws attempted, but they present more challenges to opponents than just physicality; the Grizzlies also rank first in steals, and they rank second in scoring. Last season, the Grizzlies were an excellent rebounding team (ranking fourth in the league), but they ranked 12th in blocked shots, 15th in scoring, and 17th in free throws attempted. The paint presence provided by Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. is critically important for Memphis.
In short, the Grizzlies are an old-school type of team that rejects the notion that you have to take and make a lot of three pointers to be successful. The Grizzlies rank near the bottom of the league in three point field goal percentage (24th), three point field goals made (28th), and three point field goals attempted (24th).
The main downside for the Grizzlies is that, other than rebounding, their defensive numbers are mediocre, ranking 14th in points allowed and 18th in three point field goal percentage allowed--but they are close to a top 10 ranking in overall defensive field goal percentage (11th). In order to advance past the second round of the playoffs, the Grizzlies will have to improve defensively.
That being said, Morant is the Grizzlies' best player and the main engine for the team's success. There are many NBA players who are overrated and who are pumped up by their fans in the media, but Morant is without question one of the NBA's top five players this season. He should be a lock for the All-NBA First Team, and he should receive some MVP votes (not first place votes, but top five for sure). In just his third season, the 22 year old first-time All-Star has improved in many skill set areas, but the most notable difference is that he has increased his offensive efficiency while also increasing his offensive production, a combination that is very difficult to achieve. As a rookie, Morant averaged 17.8 ppg while shooting .477 from the field. Last season, Morant slightly increased his scoring to 19.1 ppg, but his field goal percentage dropped to .449--but this season Morant is averaging 27.6 ppg while shooting .498 from the field. Morant is scoring points in the paint at a rate matched or exceeded only by some of the best and most dominant big men of the past two decades.
It will be interesting to see if the 6-3, 174 pound Morant can maintain this kind of production without getting worn down and/or injured, but a guard who attacks the paint, forces the opposing defense to collapse, and then either finishes at the rim or else dishes to a teammate for a high percentage shot in the paint is an MVP-level/championship-level guard. This season, Morant is playing better than James Harden has ever played, and a good argument could be made that Morant is playing at least as well as Stephen Curry at his peak; what many commentators and fans fail to appreciate and understand is that a skill set based evaluation does not rely on "advanced" or "basic box score" numbers. The critical point is that Morant's skills and playing style translate well to playoff basketball. If Morant stays healthy and does not wear down, his playing style will be effective in the playoffs. He has only played in one playoff series/five career playoff games, but his small sample size averages are impressive: 30.2 ppg, 8.2 apg, 4.8 apg, shooting splits of .487/.323/.775. Morant's eighth seeded Grizzlies were outmatched against the Utah Jazz in the first round of the 2021 playoffs, but Morant did everything possible to put Memphis in the best possible position to win, and it is evident that with the right supporting cast Morant can be the best player on a team that makes a deep postseason run.
Championship teams attack the paint offensively and defend the paint defensively, as Milwaukee proved last season while silencing critics who mocked Giannis Antetokounmpo's three point shooting and denounced Coach Mike Budenholzer's defensive coverages that emphasized protecting the paint. The Grizzlies have a championship-style attack the paint offense, but they still must develop a championship level defense, and they must demonstrate that they can perform at a high level at both ends of the court during a long playoff run.
Only time will tell if Morant and Memphis can meet those challenges. Meanwhile, from a skill set standpoint it is interesting to contrast Morant's playing style with Harden's. Harden relies on shooting a large number of three pointers, "flop and flail" antics that the NBA has belatedly begun to remove from the game, and driving not to score but to dish to three point shooters. When everything is clicking, when the pressure is not on, and when the opposition is weak, that style can result in gaudy numbers. In the playoffs, high variance strategies--such as shooting tons of three pointers--do not lead to championship success. Harden is the all-time king of empty calorie regular season statistics that do not translate to playoff success.
Curry is a much better player than Harden, but the myth that the Golden State Warriors won three NBA titles primarily because of Curry's three point shooting must be debunked; the Warriors would not have won those titles without playing elite defense, and Curry's three point shooting would not have been enough if the Warriors had not also been able to attack the paint. Further, the Warriors won two of those three titles after adding Kevin Durant, whose midrange game and ability to score in the paint were essential during those championship runs. It is not a coincidence that Durant won two Finals MVPs while Curry has yet to win a Finals MVP; it is also not a coincidence that Curry has only managed to lead the Warriors to "play out" of the Play-In Tournament since Durant left Golden State, though of course the Warriors will return to the playoffs this season now that Curry is again surrounded by multiple All-Star caliber players. Curry is not and never has been a Pantheon-level player who could carry a subpar team to the playoffs: contrast Curry's failure to reach the playoffs last season with the level that Kobe Bryant reached while leading the talent-depleted Lakers to the playoffs in 2006 and 2007. Curry has never been the dominant force for a championship team the way that recent Pantheon players Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James were for their championship teams.
Does this mean that Morant has surpassed Curry on the all-time greatest players list? Of course not. Curry has played at a high level throughout his career, and he has been a key member of three championship teams. Curry's body of work is more significant than Morant's. Morant's career accomplishments have not passed Harden's yet, either, though it must always be remembered that Harden has received some awards and accolades that are not justified by his performances.
All we know now is that Morant has shown the ability to play at an MVP/championship level; Morant still has to prove that the can sustain that level of play during a deep postseason run and during a long career. If he does those things, he will easily surpass Harden, and he has a chance to be as impactful as Curry.