The Oklahoma City Thunder went 37-20 before All-Star Weekend, including a 10-2 mark in the final 12 games before the midseason (or two thirds season, to be precise) break. They boasted a strong offense (115.4 ppg) and an elite defense (110.2 ppg allowed) resulting in a +5.2 ppg point differential that suggested that they were legit contenders to at least reach the Western Conference Finals. Paul George had emerged as a top five MVP candidate, while Russell Westbrook was on pace to "quietly" average a triple double for the third straight season.
The Thunder faced a tough schedule down the stretch, so it was reasonable to expect that they might slip just a bit in the standings--but their 5-10 record since All-Star Weekend is a puzzling collapse of epic proportions. While the Thunder face little risk of missing the playoffs entirely, they have plummeted to the eighth seed, which means nearly certain first round elimination at the hands of the Golden State Warriors.
Usually, when a team falls apart it is possible to pinpoint the root cause or causes of the team's demise but the Thunder's implosion does not lend itself to a simple explanation. Their scoring has declined by nearly 5 ppg and their points allowed has increased by over 4 ppg. Their spg average has dropped from 10.2 to 7.1 and, not surprisingly, they are also forcing 2.5 less turnovers per game. Combine that with a decline in both rebounding and field goal percentage and the result is that the Thunder are losing the "possession" game in terms of both totals and efficiency.
While it is not clear what the problem is, one can expect one person to receive a large portion of the blame after what seems to be an almost inevitable first round loss: Westbrook.
In the abstract, it may make some sense to "blame" a team's best player when that team does not do well, but it is worth remembering that when the Thunder were playing well the media narrative was that George, not Westbrook, was Oklahoma City's best player.
Westbrook has averaged 28.5 ppg, 10.6 rpg and 7.6 apg since All-Star Weekend, compared to 21.7 ppg, 11.2 rpg and 11.2 apg prior to All-Star Weekend. He is still on pace to average a triple double for the third straight season. Westbrook's field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage have increased significantly since All-Star Weekend, while his free throw percentage has only declined slightly (Westbrook's poor free throw shooting throughout the season is puzzling considering that he is a better than .800 free throw shooter during his career). Critics may argue that Westbrook is shooting too much and not passing enough but that argument does not carry much objective weight considering that Westbrook's shooting percentages have risen as his usage has surged. Do his declining assist numbers "prove" that he is unwilling or unable to pass, or do they suggest that his supporting cast has been less than supportive? My main criticism of Westbrook over the past 15 games is that he foolishly collected his 16th technical foul of the season, which resulted in an automatic suspension, likely costing Oklahoma City a win against Miami.
If George is going to get the credit for the time frame when the Thunder were a third seed pressing to possibly be the second seed, then he cannot be held blameless for the Thunder's free fall. George averaged 28.7 ppg on .453/.406/.837 FG%/3FG%/FT% shooting splits prior to All-Star Weekend but in the past 15 games he has scored 25.3 ppg on .381/.314/.827 shooting splits. He has missed three games due to injury during that stretch (the Thunder went 1-2 while he sat out) and he is reportedly battling injuries to both shoulders.
Steven Adams, the team's fourth leading scorer and third best player, has also seen his scoring average and field goal percentage decline in the past 15 games, and the same is true of the Thunder's third leading scorer, Dennis Schroder, who for most of the season has been a great spark plug off of the bench.
Of course, it is not surprising that several individual players have declining numbers on a team that has dramatically transformed from an elite squad to a team that, statistically, resembles a lottery team; those individual numbers define but do not explain why the Thunder have fallen apart despite not suffering an obvious problem in terms of serious injuries/bad chemistry/strategic changes.
My eye test suggests that Westbrook looks bouncier and physically more capable than he did earlier in the season, when it seemed as if his knee surgery had affected his explosiveness and/or confidence--but while Westbrook is regaining his old swagger, the rest of the team has lost its way. What makes this even more odd is that for the past several years the Thunder's success has been directly connected to Westbrook's explosiveness and dominance: the better he played, the better the Thunder did.
It is only a matter of time before some "genius" trots out the tired "Westbrook's ball dominance is killing the Thunder" narrative but the reality is that the Thunder's problems do not seem to be connected in any meaningful way with Westbrook; he is doing his part but, unlike in seasons past, that has not been enough to lift the team. It will be interesting to see if Westbrook elects to shoulder an even larger load as the season winds down; that could potentially be a recipe to lift the Thunder out of eighth place but a one man show is not going to advance very far in the playoffs.
Thunder Not Storming Into the Playoffs
