The Minnesota Timberwolves routed the Denver Nuggets 115-70 to force a game seven on Sunday in Denver. Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 27 points and posted a game-best plus/minus number that looks like a typographical error: +43. Jaden McDaniels scored 21 points, just the third 20 point game of his playoff career. Mike Conley returned to action after missing one game with a calf strain, and his calming influence was evident at both ends of the court to a far greater extent than his boxscore numbers (13 points, five assists) suggest. Karl-Anthony Towns scored just 10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, but he made his presence felt with 13 rebounds and five assists. The allegedly "unplayable" Rudy Gobert had eight points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+30). He did not block a shot, but his paint presence and activity helped the Timberwolves outscore the Nuggets in the paint 46-36 while holding the Nuggets to the worst field goal percentage (.302) and lowest scoring total in the franchise's playoff history. Naz Reid added 10 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench as Minnesota won the rebounding battle, 62-43.
Nikola Jokic had a solid game while leading the Nuggets with 22 points and nine rebounds, but the Timberwolves can live with those numbers; their size and their timely double teams held Jokic below his usual production, but the Nuggets did not exploit their opportunities to play four on three: Nuggets not named Jokic shot 17-67 (.254) from the field, with Aaron Gordon scoring 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while the other Nuggets faded into oblivion. Jamal Murray had just 10 points on 4-18 field goal shooting.
This game is a resounding demonstration that momentum does not exist in an NBA playoff series. After Denver's convincing game five win--the Nuggets' third straight victory after losing the first two games at home--it seemed like the Timberwolves had no chance to extend the series; that is what I thought as well--not based on momentum, but based on my unwavering belief that the Nuggets are the better team. The Nuggets finished one game ahead of the Timberwolves during the regular season, and that slender margin determined that Denver will host game seven. History suggests that homecourt advantage in general--and homecourt advantage in game seven in particular--matters a lot. The Timberwolves are unlikely to get 36 points off of their bench in game seven, and the Nuggets are highly unlikely to shoot so horribly in the friendly confines of their home arena.
The Nuggets shot 7-36 (.194) from three point range, including 2-9 in the first quarter as the Timberwolves sprinted to a 31-14 lead. During the halftime show, ESPN's Bob Myers made two excellent points: 1) Denver missed wide open three pointers, and 2) when you are missing three pointers--even if they are open--you should stop shooting them, put your head down, and drive to the hoop. During the season, the Nuggets ranked 30th (last) in three point field goals attempted (31.2 per game) and 10th in three point field goal percentage, so it is out of character both for them to shoot that poorly from beyond the arc and for them to shoot so many treys. High volume three point shooting leads to high variance results; in Denver's game five win, the Nuggets shot 9-19 (.474) from three point range, and those kind of numbers are what one should expect to see in game seven, regardless of whether or not the Timberwolves keep double teaming Jokic: there is not a requirement that after a star player is trapped his teammates must keep jacking up three pointers.
The prevailing narrative after game five is that Minnesota's loss was Rudy Gobert's fault, that the four-time Defensive Player of the Year is "unplayable," and that Jokic humiliated Gobert. Inconvenient facts were conveniently ignored (this is a media specialty that extends well beyond NBA coverage): in game five, Gobert contributed 18 points on 7-7 field goal shooting plus a game-high 11 rebounds with a -2 plus/minus number while every other Minnesota starter was -12 or worse, but let's not talk about that. Instead, let's give a microphone to the guy who punched Jusuf Nurkic in the face and put Gobert in a headlock. What does Draymond Green think about Gobert's performance?
Green provided unintentional comedy during his Wednesday night guest appearance on TNT when he said that he guards Jokic better than anyone who is guarding Jokic during this series. Green also declared that it is unacceptable to let Jokic be both a big-time scorer and a big-time playmaker; you have to take something away, Green solemnly declared--as if he is the man to do that job. Perhaps Green does not know that boxscores from all of his games are available online; the last time the Green faced Jokic, Jokic had 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 16 assists as Denver beat Green's Golden State Warriors, 119-103. Jokic shot 13-24 from the field and had a +20 plus/minus number, while Green logged his customary triple single (seven points, five rebounds, four assists) along with a game-high six turnovers and a game-worst -23 plus/minus number. Yes, Jokic had as many rebounds as Green had points, rebounds, and assists combined! Some players say that journalists who have never played the game are not qualified to analyze the game--but, with all due respect to Green, his personal experience does not seem to qualify him to speak about how to effectively guard Jokic, and the obvious personal grudges that Green has against Gobert, Nurkic, and other players disqualify him as an objective commentator.
Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective? What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story), Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.
The real story of this series has nothing to do with the incessant narratives about momentum or Gobert being "unplayable" or Edwards being the next Michael Jordan. The real story of this series is that these two teams are mirror images of each other because their rosters were built by the same executive, Tim Connelly: both teams are big and physical, both teams defend well, and neither team relies on "pace and space." The Nuggets have Jokic and homecourt advantage, and those two factors are likely to be the difference in game seven.