Prior to this season, the NBA instituted a Player Participation Policy to curb load management and implemented changes in the Collective Bargaining Agreement stipulating that any player who fails to play in at least 65 out of 82 regular season games is ineligible for several major awards, including regular season MVP. Joel Embiid has already missed 13 games this season, and now that he has reportedly suffered a lateral meniscus injury it is almost certain that he will not meet the 65 games played threshold. Some media members and some NBA players have complained that in light of his high level play this season--including a 70 point game and a league-leading 35.3 ppg scoring average--it is not fair for Embiid to be automatically disqualified from MVP consideration.
Missing a lot of games is not an aberration for Embiid, an injury-prone player who sat out every game of his first two NBA seasons. He played 31 games in his third season, 2016-17, and since that time he has played at least 65 games in a season just twice (66 in 2022-23, 68 in 2021-22). Embiid is not only frequently unavailable during the regular season, but he often disappears during the playoffs: his playoff numbers for scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage are all significantly lower than his regular season numbers, he has never won a second round series, and he has an 0-3 game seven record. Embiid has only won one series that went past five games, which indicates that (1) he only wins in the playoffs when his team is markedly superior to the opposing team, and (2) he tends to wear down over the course of a series.
Embiid won the regular season MVP last season, but is the above resume an MVP resume overall? There is no disputing that Embiid is a very talented player, but is he an MVP-level all-time great player? Put another way, should an MVP be expected to play more than 65 regular season games per year and deliver more in the playoffs than a bunch of second round losses?
The Philadelphia 76ers obtained Embiid's draft rights by tanking, and they most assuredly have not tanked to the top. Tanking and load management are two sides of the same counterfeit coin, because both practices minimize the value of winning regular season games. The NBA was much better when tanking and load management did not exist, and when players like Julius Erving and Moses Malone took pride in playing every game: "From 1967-82, the NBA regular season MVP played in 81 or 82 games every year except for 1978, when 1977 NBA Finals MVP Bill Walton captured the regular season MVP despite being limited to 58 games due to injuries--and Walton was not 'load managing': he was legitimately injured. Erving won four regular season MVPs during his ABA/NBA career; in those MVP seasons, he played in 84, 84, 84, and 82 games (the ABA regular season lasted 84 games). Malone won three regular season MVPs during his ABA/NBA career; in those MVP seasons, he played in 82, 81, and 78 games."
Bill Walton's regular season MVP in a 58 game season is an aberration, and Embiid is not Bill Walton. Embiid has never led a team to the Eastern Conference Finals--let alone an NBA title--and there is no indication that he will ever be durable enough to avoid wearing down or getting injured before or during the playoffs. Think about that: Bill Walton--the poster child for injury-prone players--proved to be more durable when it matters most than Embiid has been up to this point in his 10 year NBA career. By traditional standards, Embiid has never had an MVP-caliber season.
With the Player Participation Policy and the aforementioned changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, NBA fans are now seeing star players on the court--as opposed to sipping wine on the sidelines--more often than has been the case for the past several years. The NBA should not reverse this positive trend. Most working people are either paid based on showing up for work every day (i.e., paid by the hour) or based on performance; few people have salaries that are guaranteed regardless of their attendance or performance. If NBA players want to be eligible for postseason awards--and for contractual bonuses connected to those awards--without a minimum games played threshold then there is a simple solution: eliminate guaranteed contracts, and transition to paying each player per game played: Don't play, don't get paid. Under those rules, if players want to miss more than 17 game checks and hope that the award voters will still select them for MVP or the All-NBA Team, go for it.
I am not "blaming" Embiid or anyone else for being legitimately injured (there is no indication that Embiid is load managing). My two-fold point is (1) By definition the regular season MVP is (or should be) a player who plays at a very high level while missing very few games, and (2) players should not expect to both receive guaranteed paychecks despite missing a large number of games and be eligible for major awards: something has to give--either give up the guaranteed money, or accept that it is fair to expect major award winners to both stay healthy and not engage in load management.